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Goldschmidt has had a great first 5 weeks of the season. He's been one of my favorite hitters to watch in baseball since he came up 2 years ago and I saw him homer off of Tyler Clippard in DC. He kills left-handed pitching and hits ropes.
Justin Upton has cooled off a little while Goldschmidt has hit 4 HRs in the last week. So on the year, the bat is basically a dead heat:
Upton's OPS+ is 168 to Goldschmidt's 163
wOBA .419 to .416
So to your point, sure. Goldschmidt is hitting the ball harder than Justin Upton right now coming off a week where he's hit .400 with 4 HR. He's still not better than Justin Upton though.
Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs use different formulas to calculate value, but they both spit out the same numbers with relations to those two players:
JU - rWAR 2.0, fWAR 2.0
PG - rWAR 1.4, fWAR 1.4
So let's examine some of the differences. Position, obviously is accounted for. As well as defense and baserunning.
Goldschmidt has been good in the field. He's made 73 outs. Dewan has him even going to his right, +2 straight on, and -1 to his left. He's started two double plays when he had and opportunity to start five. +5 on the year. Saved an estimated 3 runs. Top 10 at the position in the league this year.
Upton meanwhile, has really taken well to LF. His arm was never his best tool, so I think it bodes well for him going forward. He's made 63 outs. Dewan has him -1 shallow, +2 medium, and +7 deep. 7 baserunner advancements out of a possibel 14, no kills. Saved an estimated 4 runs. Top 5 at the position in the league for the year. Top 5 LF is more valuable than a Top 10 1B. Fangraphs says that it's about 1.8 fielding runs worth, Baseball-Reference gives it a run after positional adjustment.
As you astutely brought up baserunning, per Baseball Prospectus, Justin Upton has been the 6th most valuable baserunner this year to date. Adding an estimated 2.2 runs with his legs. Goldschmidt has been good too, ranking 28th and adding 1.4. Again good, but not Justin Upton. The biggest difference is the hit advancement opportunities (first to third, first to home, second to home). Upton has had 11 such opportunities to Goldschmidt's 15, but has still been four times more effective in that area.
And then there's the occasional running into an out, which Goldschmidt has done more of this year. For example, last night he drew a lead-off walk in the 4th inning against Cole Hamels in a 0-0 game. Great work there. Then he proceeded to get picked-off.
So purely from a production standpoint at the plate, coin toss thus far. Overall value, Upton in a close but definitive victory. I don't think Goldschmidt's funky reverse platoon splits are going to hold-up at all so far this year.
How do I always end up defending Braves outfielders on this board?
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