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Subject: "WTF: Dem strategy in Kansas election? Ignore it" Previous topic | Next topic
legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Fri Apr-14-17 08:42 AM

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"WTF: Dem strategy in Kansas election? Ignore it"


          

These fuckers are bat shit crazy.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/democrats-national-strategy_us_58ee8596e4b0b9e98488f39e

Democrats Say They Sometimes Need To Ignore Elections In Order To Win

Toward the end of the 2016 presidential election, as polls showed a tighter-than-expected contest in Michigan, the Hillary Clinton campaign faced a dilemma over just how aggressively it needed to act.

While aides worried about the possibility of losing the industrial Midwest stronghold, they also feared that if they moved significant resources into the state it would send a dangerous signal to Republicans that it was actually in play, setting off a political arms race. They ultimately chose to stay away in hopes that Donald Trump would only realize how close he was when it was too late.

Clinton went on to lose Michigan by 12,000 votes.

Months later, the first congressional campaign of the Trump era took place. And once again, the Democratic Party played possum. Instead of investing resources into the special election in Kansas’ 4th District that took place on Tuesday night, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee kept their distance under the assumption they only would have motivated Republican voters had they engaged.

The Democratic candidate James Thompson, an attorney and Army veteran, ended up losing the race by 7 percentage points. And because he was never expected to make it that close, Democrats now are asking not just whether more could have been done, but why the party continues to assume it can’t help out (some of) its own without hurting them.

“I don’t buy that if the race is close, that you can hide it to the other side and they’ll fail to nationalize it the way they could,” said Jeff Hauser, a longtime progressive operative. “The DCCC couldn’t prevent ads from happening by staying out. He’s a Dem. If the best way to attack him is to claim he would support Pelosi, well, it is true. The notion that they can suddenly prevent that is bullshit.”

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Above: A former top spokesman for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) seems to jokingly weigh in on the DCCC’s strategy.

The parallels between how Clinton approached Michigan and how the DCCC approached the Kansas special election are limited. It’s not just that Clinton was expected to win and the DCCC was expected to lose (one top Democrat said that internal polling they saw of the Thompson race had him more than 20 points out three weeks before the vote). It’s that presidential elections have dramatically different voter turnout patterns than special elections, and the Michigan electorate is far more amenable to a Democrat than the lower portion of central Kansas.


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“You do not get to the single digits in a district like this if you’re a nationalized Democrat,” said Meredith Kelly, the communications director for the committee. “End of story. That’s just the way it is. There are just certain races where it is not helpful to be attached to the national D.C. Democrats. It is the calculation you make in even the most competitive swing district.”

Even within the progressive community, this argument has held sway. Some of Thompson’s proudest backers insisted that he only got as close as he did precisely because he was perceived as a product of the grassroots culture (more associated with Bernie Sanders than Nancy Pelosi) and didn’t have a taint of political careerism.

“I sort of view a race like this as a showdown between a large standing army and a nimble band of guerrillas operating deep in enemy turf,” said David Nir, political director at the liberal site Daily Kos, which helped raise nearly $200,000 for Thompson online. “If the guerrillas engage in a direct firefight, they’re going to get crushed. Instead, they have to catch their opponents unawares and carry out a sneak attack under cover of darkness.”

But in both Michigan and in Kansas, the conclusion was reached by the party that the harder the race was contested the harder it would become. (Clinton only stopped in Michigan the day before the election, and her team left a negligible footprint compared to Democratic candidates of the past; in Kansas, the DCCC did 25,000 live get-out-the-vote calls on behalf of Thompson just one day before the election.)

And in making those calculations, both the Clinton campaign and the DCCC picked at an insecurity that runs through many Democrats: the feeling that top officials often obscure or hide their progressive skin rather than proudly own it.

“A head fake is a good move on a basketball court. But for getting electoral votes in a presidential campaign, head fakes don’t work that well,” said Tad Devine, a longtime party strategist who was Bernie Sanders’ senior adviser in the 2016 campaign. “In this day and age, sneaking anything by anyone is ridiculous. People have Twitter and are online. People share information so quickly. The idea you can sneak something by someone is absurd. You could do it in the ‘80s maybe. That is not the age we live in anymore.”

In the aftermath of Tuesday’s closer-than-expected loss, Thompson’s campaign manager said he did not begrudge the DCCC for its decision to keep strategic distance from their race.


And DCCC officials said they had no second guesses about their approach. Kelly noted that despite a strong fundraising month, the DCCC lagged behind their Republican counterparts, making it even harder to justify a $100,000 investment in a race where they worried it would backfire. But, she said, the committee’s calculations could potentially change based on Thompson’s success ― not just because enthusiasm has heightened after Tuesday’s results but because it’s now clearer that the party can contend in once-unthinkable races.

“We all knew there was amazing grassroots energy out there but we didn’t know how it would translate at the ballot box,” she said. “Now we do. And I think you will see strategies shifting. There are a lot of races ahead of us.”

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Topic Outline
Subject Author Message Date ID
With limited resources, you can't throw money at elections
Apr 14th 2017
1
You gotta figure it can't be THAT expensive
Apr 14th 2017
3
100K ain't shit when it comes to an election.
Apr 14th 2017
6
limited resources? they're not running in half the elections
Apr 14th 2017
7
      And they keep wondering how Dems lost to Trump
Apr 14th 2017
8
Low party self esteem
Apr 14th 2017
2
i hate my state
Apr 14th 2017
4
the good cop/bad cop routine is getting more obvious daily
Apr 14th 2017
5
THE DNC IS AN OVERARCHING TOO POWERFUL CONSPIRACY
Apr 14th 2017
9
well that made no sense at all
Apr 14th 2017
13
      that's because it's sponsored by the DNC
Apr 14th 2017
17
The Democrats fucking obsession with winning Florida lost the election
Apr 14th 2017
10
i've been doing some light volunteering with these folks:
Apr 14th 2017
11
amazes me that they didn't try to win that seat in Kansas
Apr 14th 2017
12
i like this....I'm definitely gonna check this out
Apr 14th 2017
14
right on
Apr 14th 2017
15
nice. what kind of work do they have you doing?
Apr 14th 2017
16
      right now they mainly have folks "screening" potential candidates
Apr 14th 2017
18

Buddy_Gilapagos
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Fri Apr-14-17 08:44 AM

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1. "With limited resources, you can't throw money at elections"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

you don't think you can win.

Although Obama's big departure from previous democrats who won is Obama believed in a 50 state strategy. Dems previously and Hillary tried to be more strategic and figure out the leanest path to 270.


**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

  

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BigReg
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Fri Apr-14-17 08:55 AM

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3. "You gotta figure it can't be THAT expensive"
In response to Reply # 1


  

          

obviously its tough to run every local election full throttle, but there were pieces about how this election was winable for a few weeks, along with The Donald apparently throwing some personalized fundraising shine a week ago.

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
79586 posts
Fri Apr-14-17 09:42 AM

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6. "100K ain't shit when it comes to an election. "
In response to Reply # 1


          

and why would they think they had no shot in this environment?

After Trump I think Dems should realize every election is winnable.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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rob
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Fri Apr-14-17 10:59 AM

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7. "limited resources? they're not running in half the elections"
In response to Reply # 1


  

          

didn't we have this conversation last year about how leftleft dems were the worst because they wouldn't support the party?

the party doesn't even support itself. unless they're engaging in fan service fantasies of turning the south purple by winning a couple city/city-adjacent districts.

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
79586 posts
Fri Apr-14-17 01:39 PM

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8. "And they keep wondering how Dems lost to Trump"
In response to Reply # 7


          

This is the laziest, most ridiculous shit I have ever heard.

Playing possum? Acting like 100k is big money.

Not visiting states or putting feet in the ground because they already know the outcome.

This shit is a sham.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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BigReg
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Fri Apr-14-17 08:51 AM

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2. "Low party self esteem"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

The Repub's heard the footst3eps in the water and threw cash at that race with a quickness. I understand the fact you wanna spend cash in 'winnable' places, however if the repubs ramped up their spending for a month along with news pieces weeks ago saying there was blood in the water...

One thing the dems lack is that they've got so much grassroots energy on the ground level, but on the national level it's like working at the DMV.

  

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Ashy Achilles
Member since Sep 22nd 2005
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Fri Apr-14-17 08:58 AM

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4. "i hate my state"
In response to Reply # 0


          

  

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kayru99
Member since Jan 26th 2004
16105 posts
Fri Apr-14-17 09:08 AM

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5. "the good cop/bad cop routine is getting more obvious daily"
In response to Reply # 0


          

  

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Rjcc
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Fri Apr-14-17 01:53 PM

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9. "THE DNC IS AN OVERARCHING TOO POWERFUL CONSPIRACY"
In response to Reply # 0


          


and then almost immediately afterwards

THE DNC DIDNT SPEND ENOUGH MONEY TO WIN

it's weird how the bernie bros have all the reasons why everyone else is wrong, but all they can come up with when they lose (constantly, and consistently) is how they got screwed.

www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
79586 posts
Fri Apr-14-17 03:33 PM

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13. "well that made no sense at all"
In response to Reply # 9


          

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Rjcc
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Fri Apr-14-17 05:23 PM

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17. "that's because it's sponsored by the DNC"
In response to Reply # 13


          


www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

  

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J_Stew
Member since Jul 06th 2002
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Fri Apr-14-17 02:37 PM

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10. "The Democrats fucking obsession with winning Florida lost the election"
In response to Reply # 0


          

way more than any Russian interference or anything else. They tried to fight a war on all fronts. This runs exactly counter to what they kept feeding us about the "Blue Wall" states. These dumb fuckers didn't spend nearly enough time on the ground in those states because they thought they were locks. All sorts of other reasons, but when I read about that, I was horrified.

  

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Government Name
Member since Dec 16th 2005
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Fri Apr-14-17 03:23 PM

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11. "i've been doing some light volunteering with these folks:"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

https://www.runforsomething.net/

this type of sh*t gotta stop happening. too many Rs running unopposed or against Dems w/ no support.

________
http://twitter.com/aehorton
http://instagram.com/aehorton

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
79586 posts
Fri Apr-14-17 03:30 PM

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12. "amazes me that they didn't try to win that seat in Kansas"
In response to Reply # 11


          

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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ambient1
Member since May 23rd 2007
41077 posts
Fri Apr-14-17 03:52 PM

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14. "i like this....I'm definitely gonna check this out"
In response to Reply # 11


  

          

=======================================
Coolin...

  

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rob
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Fri Apr-14-17 04:22 PM

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15. "right on"
In response to Reply # 11


  

          

  

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GOMEZ
Member since Feb 13th 2003
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Fri Apr-14-17 04:26 PM

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16. "nice. what kind of work do they have you doing?"
In response to Reply # 11


  

          

what kind of volunteers do they need?

In a generation of swine, the one-eyed pig is king.
-Hunter S. Thompson

  

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Government Name
Member since Dec 16th 2005
23190 posts
Fri Apr-14-17 08:24 PM

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18. "right now they mainly have folks "screening" potential candidates"
In response to Reply # 16


  

          

i've had phone calls with folks around the country who have shown interest in running for local office and we follow up to collect more information and see how serious they are about running.

people who have campaign or political experience serve as "mentors" and others can lend whatever skills they have to help out with campaigns as necessary. for example, last week a few folks needed help with social media, some needed help getting a website up, stuff like that. the bulk the of the work is really doing the phone convos right now, though.

i really like their mission and while they talk about diversity a lot, the only way we can ensure it happens is by getting involved.

________
http://twitter.com/aehorton
http://instagram.com/aehorton

  

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