The ensuing bomby rant about how the seamheads don't know anything & that howard's the best run producer in the league because of his rbi totals should prove entertaining, as will shells' disheartened resignation at the fact that the phils hung a $125 million 270lb albatross around their necks for the next five years.


http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Slumpbot-200-With-salary-set-to-soar-Ryan-How?urn=mlb-wp13209&active_dimension=carousel_coke_today&ysp_frm_woah=1

By Alex Remington

Using the best technology available to us today, SlumpBot .200 identifies a few players who are currently having a bit of trouble and then offers solutions for performance recovery.

Ryan Howard(notes), Philadelphia Phillies
Data: .246/.342/.453, 18 HR, 73 RBIs, 1 SB, 0 CS, 49 BB/104 K

Malfunction: Ryan Howard is leading the National League in RBIs, and he's on his way to another 30-homer season. Still, if you look a little deeper, the 31-year-old is having a disappointing campaign and a terrible July, with just a .548 OPS in 14 games this month. That's a small sample size, but Howard's decline has been nearly linear: Beginning in 2006, his MVP campaign, his yearly OPS has been the following: 1.084, .976, .881, .931, .859, .795. This would all be worrisome in itself, but his contract makes it positively frightening. Starting next year, the Phillies owe him $125 million through 2016. Is Ryan Howard's bat turning from elite to ordinary?

Diagnosis: Ryan Howard has been one of the ultimate touchstones for the debate about just how useful RBIs are in measuring a hitter's value. The sabermetric answer, of course, is "not very." RBI totals have much more to do with a hitter's teammates � the ones who got on base in order to be driven in � than with the one driving them in.

As Joe Posnanski wrote a week ago:

Howard leads all of baseball with 296 runners on base. He had an amazing 60 game-stretch recently when he hit .223 � and he still drove in 47 runs in those 60 games.

But a low batting average is the least of it. Bill Baer at Crashburn Alley lays out the statistics of the matter: Ryan Howard is in the process of posting career lows in Isolated Power, Weighted On-Base Average, and hitting against left-handed pitchers.

The drop in Isolated Power � a measure of a hitter's ability to hit for extra bases, calculated by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage � has been particularly precipitous, declining from a spectacular .346 in 2006 to a more ordinary .207 in 2011, lower than his teammate Shane Victorino(notes). Moreover, the collapse in his platoon splits suggests that Howard, who only has a .637 OPS against southpaws this year, may need to be removed from his everyday role when a left-hander is on the mound. Weighted On-Base Average is an overall measure of offensive performance, sort of like a more advanced version of OPS � another measure in which he's posting a career low.

The drop in his Isolated Power is particularly salient for a power hitter like Howard: It's 40 percent lower this year than it was when he won his MVP. But his walk rate this year has declined by nearly a quarter, from 15.3 percent in 2006 to 11.7 percent this year. (He has also cut his strikeouts, but not by quite as much.) If that weren't enough, Fangraphs has Howard as a below-average baserunner and below-average fielder.

That said, Howard is a notorious second-half hitter. For his career, he has an .867 OPS in the first half and a 1.007 OPS in the second half. So it's very possible that he'll catch fire for the rest of the summer and post the kind of numbers we got used to seeing from him before his injury-shortened 2010. However, I noted Howard's traditional second-half bounce in Slumpbot last June, and Howard proceeded to produce an .858 OPS in the second half after posting an .859 OPS in the first half. So it's quite likely that Howard's problems � especially his declining power and walks � are caused by something other than the calendar.

Reboot Directions: Ryan Howard is still a pretty good hitter, particularly in a year in which offense is down across the league. But he isn't very good, and his power has been on a linear decline for six years. Even if his Batting Average on Balls in Play climbs up 34 points to reach his career average, that overall decline is almost sure to continue.

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Mar-A-Lago delenda est

by Bill Baer on July 19th, 2011
Posted in MLB, Philadelphia Phillies, Sabermetrics

Ryan Howard went 0-for-4 last night in the series opener against the Chicago Cubs, just a small part of the Phillies� collective inability to push runs across the board against Rodrigo Lopez. The 3-4-5 in the lineup collectively went hitless in 11 at-bats while John Mayberry Jr. was the only one to have more than one hit. As the Phillies had been on a roll offensively (55 runs in the eight games prior), and were much improved after getting Chase Utley back (average 4.6 runs per game since May 23), we can�t really complain about this one bad game.

However, it is getting increasingly more difficult to ignore Howard�s precipitous decline. I�ve become known as a Howard-hater (I�m not really), so I will just present the facts and leave the conclusions up to you, the reader. The following is a large selection of Howard�s current offensive stats, accurate prior to last night�s game against the Cubs. If you don�t understand any of the stats or would like to learn more about them, click here.

Isolated Power (ISO): .209. Previous career-low: .229 in 2010. Career average: .285. Howard�s ISO has been in decline since 2006, actually. To put this in context, Matt Kemp has a .275 ISO, Michael Morse is at .230, and Jhonny Peralta is at .211.

http://i.imgur.com/NuLu3.jpg

Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP): .292. Career-low: .285 in 2008. Career average: .324. Likely due to a decline in line drives (19 percent) but it may not be meaningful. He has become more of a pull hitter. Given the shift, this may have an adverse effect on his BABIP.

Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA): .345. Previous career-low: .366 in 2008. Career average: .387. To put this in context, Kevin Youkilis is at .396, Adam Lind is at .367, and Michael Bourn is at .345.
His OPS (.803) tells a similar story. Previous career-low: .859 in 2010. Career average: .931.
OPS+, which adjusts for park and league factors, has Howard just over 120, still a career-low.

Platoon Splits: Howard was known for being average to slightly above-average against left-handed pitching, but extremely good against right-handed pitching.

2011 vs. LHP: .291 wOBA. Career-low: .290 in 2009. Career average: .326.
2011 ISO vs. LHP: .080. Previous career-low: .149 in 2009. Career average: .207.
2011 vs. RHP: .368 wOBA. Previous career-low: .372 in 2010. Career average: .419.
2011 ISO vs. RHP: .270. Previous career low: .274 in 2010. Career average: .327.

Howard is on pace for 31 home runs and 124 RBI. While not as good as his 2006-09 numbers, it is roughly equivalent to last year�s production. Given what appears to be the dawning of a new era of pitching and defense, those numbers appear quite good. However, the Sabermetric stats paint a different and much more pessimistic picture. Howard has become known for his ridiculously productive second-halves; here�s hoping he has another one up his sleeve.

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Mar-A-Lago delenda est

http://crashburnalley.com/2011/07/19/ryan-howard-sitting-on-career-lows/#comments

By Jim Z. on Jul 19, 2011
$125m, 5 years. It�s downright scary projecting how this team will look 2+ years down the road.

Especially if Ruben gets suckered into giving Rollins a Jeter-esque �pay for past performance� contract.

By Jeffy T on Jul 19, 2011
This graph and article makes me physically ill. I just keep repeating (25,000,000) to myself.

By jauer on Jul 19, 2011
At least when you overpay Rollins youll be locking up the most difficult non-battery position, whereas Howard gets to drop waist-high throws for the next 5 years.

By Jadeq on Jul 19, 2011
No we can�t critique Howard! We�re being bad, ungrateful fans who don�t know what we have! 73 RBI! sorry just had to get that off my chest��.Those are the resposes I usually get when I recite those numbers

By Bill Baer on Jul 19, 2011
Jadeq, referencing the herpy-derp article on Phillies Nation?

By Jay on Jul 19, 2011
Worth. Every. Penny. Did you not see him on Entourage and Always Sunny? He is having an awful season, but has been the one constant for an injury riddled offense. I understand that Sabers hate RBIs, but the team with more RBIs at the end of a game wins more often than the team with the higher OPS at the end of the game.

By Chris on Jul 19, 2011
Howard pulling the ball: 0.326 babip and 0.255 iso. Although a bit below his career average babip on pulled balls of 0.341, I don�t think that�s really the issue. I think what�s more troubling about his babip is his up the middle babip of 0.279 (vs. 0.330 career), and low LD% relative to his career. I think overall his platoon splits, low LD%, and REALLY low HR/FB% are what�s most troubling about the Phillies future with him.

By Sean C on Jul 19, 2011
I like Howard a good deal, but his contract is what makes him so unappealing. I hope he turns it around like he usually does in the second half, but who knows.

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Mar-A-Lago delenda est

I'm a little concerned that he has 0 HRs against LHs...

but this could still end terribly for you...

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and Howard proceeded to produce an .858 OPS in the second half after posting an .859 OPS in the first half. So it's quite likely that Howard's problems � especially his declining power and walks � are caused by something other than the calendar.


>I'm a little concerned that he has 0 HRs against LHs...

as you should:

Moreover, the collapse in his platoon splits suggests that Howard, who only has a .637 OPS against southpaws this year, may need to be removed from his everyday role when a left-hander is on the mound.


>but this could still end terribly for you...

it's much more likely this will end terribly for the phils.

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Mar-A-Lago delenda est

<-------- My name is CARLOS. You may have heard of me.

it'd be interesting to compare his numbers with Beltran hitting in the 5 spot for the rest of year

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http://i.imgur.com/NuLu3.jpg

>it'd be interesting to compare his numbers with Beltran
>hitting in the 5 spot for the rest of year

you mean that guy you said didn't deserve to make the all-star team?

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Mar-A-Lago delenda est

and Vic >>> Beltran
McCuthen >>> Beltran
Cargo >>> Beltran
etc...

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>and Vic >>> Beltran
>McCuthen >>> Beltran
>Cargo >>> Beltran
>etc...

no
yes
no

but hey 1 out of 3, that's more than you usually get right.

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Mar-A-Lago delenda est

post #29...smh...muts

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>and Howard proceeded to produce an .858 OPS in the second
>half after posting an .859 OPS in the first half. So it's
>quite likely that Howard's problems � especially his declining
>power and walks � are caused by something other than the
>calendar.

You see, that was because Philly won the NL East comfortably. In 2008 they had to catch the Mets and he hit out of his mind. He's clearly just waiting for when the games count more. If Atlanta stays about 5 games out, he might not do it. He chooses when to hit well and if he doesn't really need to, he'll just continue on doing what he's been doing.

doesn't that validate his contract?

How many other players, you're a Muts fan I'm assuming so this should be an easy question, get the big contract and their team never even sniffs the postseason...

We're kind of set up in Philly for the next 3-5 years, in case you haven't noticed

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>doesn't that validate his contract?

I'm a Nationals fan. And the Phils winning could certainly validate his contract. Nobody is going to really pick apart how a windder was put together from a critical stand point. Of course the contract hasn't even started yet...Sadly, Howard will be retired and living fat and we'll still be paying Jayson Werth.

>How many other players, you're a Muts fan I'm assuming so this
>should be an easy question, get the big contract and their
>team never even sniffs the postseason...

Cubs fans would probably be better to ask on that one. But for every Barry Zito there's probably 3-4 Vernon Wells.

>We're kind of set up in Philly for the next 3-5 years, in case
>you haven't noticed

I'd give you 1-2 tops. 8 of your top 9 leaders in plate appearances are all north of 30. Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay are 32 and 33. The only guy on the Phillies roster that I would bet money on being any good in 2+ years is Cole Hamels. Brown has a shot certainly but he's still plenty raw.

So this contract could work out for the Phils then, maybe once he starts getting $25 Mil a year he'll feel like trying to hit all the time?

Dude is not just changing his ability based on how he feels, Howard's getting old and getting paid.

He's pacing himself. He knows the game and knows what he has to do. He does enough to win and based on the Phillies record, he's been doing more than enough.

He's got a Rookie of the Year, an MVP, a Hank Aaron Award, an NLCS MVP, and a World Series ring. Really all he needs for a hardware sweep in an ASG MVP and a World Series MVP. The next time Phillies are in the World Series he'll hit just well enough to win the MVP. That's what he does.

Everybody else is just on that Earnie Shavers.

----
bshelly

"You (Fisher) could get fired, Les Snead could get fired, Kevin Demoff could get fired, but I will always be Eric Dickerson.” (c) The God

dont the Phillies catch fire every September?

_____________________________
http://bcplanningblog.blogspot.com/
A Blog about Urban Culture and City Planning

the answer to your questions are

Yes, and

Yes

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it's not simply that howard's numbers are down this year, it's that they've been steadily declining for the last 5 years. even if he has a big september it won't change that.

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Mar-A-Lago delenda est

he asked you 2 questions, which the 2nd can only be answered as YES, despite your charts and graphs he has a career .307 AVG in sept/oct, so...

YES, and...

YES

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If you can't understand it without an explanation

you can't understand it with an explanation

y'all might get to rent beltran for the next few months though.

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Mar-A-Lago delenda est

Jose ain't gonna take a cut like Clifford

his contract is backloaded, he signed for 5 years $120 million with an option for a 6th year...were the yankees offering him more than $24mil/yr?

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If you can't understand it without an explanation

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Whatever it was they would have paid more for longer than Philly.

the answer to your question is

when your team's season is over at the all-star break, your fandom may become misdirected (without football that is)

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you can't understand it with an explanation

We don't rely on one player that heavily and we don't fuck with Madoff, so ...

And you will know MY JACKET IS GOLD when I lay my vengeance upon thee.

.

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Mar-A-Lago delenda est

chea

__________________________
Duke, Knicks, Yankess, Giants, UGA, Rangers

Binlahab droppin science on the youth

"youre frustrated now? in undergrad? reading books all day?,
surrounded by more nubile unattached pussy than you will be in your life?"

and you did that on us having only one good pitcher & still needing 6 games to handle us.

INB4RingsWonWithBabeRuthReggieJacksonMantleAsIfTheyMeanShitIn2011

http://hypevercab.bandcamp.com

__________________________
Duke, Knicks, Yankess, Giants, UGA, Rangers

Binlahab droppin science on the youth

"youre frustrated now? in undergrad? reading books all day?,
surrounded by more nubile unattached pussy than you will be in your life?"

of this run. And don't bullshit me, you'd LOVE for the Mets to do something like the Braves did in the 90s. They got a chip and they dominated the division and the league. That's more than the feeble ass Mets will ever do, they've had one chance in 50 years and they blew it on cocaine.

If Howard puts in three more seasons about this level, I won't regret the contract. We got the monster years he had at a clearance-bin price.

You were riding Philly pipe about Rollins and Utley, too. Rollins' deal is coming up just at the time when he is slowing down. Utley is having his issues but I'm confident he'll be back in form and in any case he doesn't have a Howard-length deal anyway.

Basically they have managed their players' age/deals beautifully to this point, you can see that in the commitments they took on in the pitching staff, too.

Every year you've got some bullshit knock and every year they wind up getting stronger. They've completely flipped the identity of their team and only gotten better.

And you will know MY JACKET IS GOLD when I lay my vengeance upon thee.

phils don't win again this year and y'all are the nouveau bravos for sure.


>of this run. And don't bullshit me, you'd LOVE for the Mets
>to do something like the Braves did in the 90s.

nah you don't bullshit me, you should be glad to be doing something like the Braves did in the 90's instead of fronting like y'all are the NL Yankees, which as raheem + v3 pointed out above, you ain't.


>If Howard puts in three more seasons about this level, I won't
>regret the contract. We got the monster years he had at a
>clearance-bin price.

except howard's level of play has been steadily declining for the past 5 seasons and his contract prevents you from signing a younger more valuable player who'll be more productive over the duration of the contract (like say prince fielder.)


>You were riding Philly pipe about Rollins and Utley, too.
>Rollins' deal is coming up just at the time when he is slowing
>down.

rollins' deal came up in 2009? cuz he started slowing down 2 years ago. and I didn't say shit about ultey other than point out the fact that david wright's career numbers are better when you philly dirtbags were jumping on wright's dick as usual.


>Every year you've got some bullshit knock and every year they
>wind up getting stronger.

how's it bullshit if it's true? you're saying alot of shit just like before but yet again you haven't actually disputed what I stated.

> They've completely flipped the
>identity of their team and only gotten better.

right, they've now got a stacked rotation & a spotty offense - i.e., they're the nouveau bravos. congrats.

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Mar-A-Lago delenda est

>phils don't win again this year and y'all are the nouveau
>bravos for sure.

and you should be (and are!) jealous of both those franchises. mets have had success in their entire existence than the braves had in the 90s. you cant even hold the buffalo bills never-won argument over either team. of course it would be disappointing if the phils didn't win one more, and people would actually notice, because unlike the braves there are actual fans of the team.


>>of this run. And don't bullshit me, you'd LOVE for the Mets
>>to do something like the Braves did in the 90s.
>
>nah you don't bullshit me, you should be glad to be doing
>something like the Braves did in the 90's instead of fronting
>like y'all are the NL Yankees, which as raheem + v3 pointed
>out above, you ain't.

RIGHT TODAY we are the powerhouse in the NL, have been that for four years now. I don't think anyone is saying anything beyond that, but it doesn't surprise me that an insecure, third-borough Mets fan compares everything to the pinstripes.

>>If Howard puts in three more seasons about this level, I
>won't
>>regret the contract. We got the monster years he had at a
>>clearance-bin price.
>
>except howard's level of play has been steadily declining for
>the past 5 seasons and his contract prevents you from signing
>a younger more valuable player who'll be more productive over
>the duration of the contract (like say prince fielder.

Like I said, they've managed their contracts very well on the whole, you don't see any other guys that will wind up overpaid by the end of them. Even with Rollins, he dropped off but earned his money the last couple years, now he is up. Utley is up 2013. None of the pitchers are locked down to huge Zito-esque deals. Even if Howard's career goes to total shit, the Phillies have flexibility.

>>You were riding Philly pipe about Rollins and Utley, too.
>>Rollins' deal is coming up just at the time when he is
>slowing
>>down.
>
>rollins' deal came up in 2009? cuz he started slowing down 2
>years ago. and I didn't say shit about ultey other than point
>out the fact that david wright's career numbers are better
>when you philly dirtbags were jumping on wright's dick as
>usual.

lmao, yes you did, every time a philly infielder has been hurt, you've been there doing the ickey shuffle talking about where they will be when their contract is up. well we've gotten great mileage out of rollins and utley alike and they have a combined two seasons left on their deal (both utley's).

wright and utley's numbers are really even across the board, sure, i'd take utley's defense and playoff performance over wright's in an instant though and this year wright is hitting like .240, not exactly winning fans back.

>>Every year you've got some bullshit knock and every year
>they
>>wind up getting stronger.
>
>how's it bullshit if it's true? you're saying alot of shit
>just like before but yet again you haven't actually disputed
>what I stated.

has rollins' contract hurt them? not a bit. has utley's? no. even ibanez (more an internal critique from fans) has been about the right length, polanco's too. so far they have handicapped lengths well. even if what you're saying here or said in the past is not "bullshit," it's certainly inconsequential in terms of the team's overall success. one team wins the series every year, you put yourself in a position to maybe be that team and they've done that. they were what, two and six wins short in the past two years? over the last five seasons, they've been the best team in baseball, won two pennants and a world series. just a refresher. go pick apart the fucking cubs if you want to have something to post about.

>> They've completely flipped the
>>identity of their team and only gotten better.
>
>right, they've now got a stacked rotation & a spotty offense -
>i.e., they're the nouveau bravos. congrats.

again, you'd die to be the bravos or would you prefer being a hapless franchise on the verge of collapse?

And you will know MY JACKET IS GOLD when I lay my vengeance upon thee.

>and you should be (and are!) jealous of both those franchises.

nah I'm too busy being jealous of the yankees to be jealous of you single-ring wannabe dynasties.


> mets have had success in their entire existence than the
>braves had in the 90s.

mets have 2 championships to atlanta's 1, so no.


>RIGHT TODAY we are the powerhouse in the NL, have been that
>for four years now. I don't think anyone is saying anything
>beyond that,

I only mentioned the yankees cuz you're up there talking shit about you got money to burn and it doesn't matter that you're overpaying fatboy cuz you don't rely on one player that heavily, when the reality is you can't just print money to burn like the yanks can yet you're running all this bold talk like you can operate the way they do - FOH


but it doesn't surprise me that an insecure,
>third-borough Mets fan compares everything to the pinstripes.

ironic coming from an insecure, third-city phils fan who's manufactured mets beef is driven solely by a philly inferiority complex.


>Like I said, they've managed their contracts very well on the
>whole, you don't see any other guys that will wind up overpaid
>by the end of them.

Ibanez and blanton will, but they're not long-term contracts so not too big a deal.


>lmao, yes you did, every time a philly infielder has been
>hurt, you've been there doing the ickey shuffle talking about
>where they will be when their contract is up. well we've
>gotten great mileage out of rollins and utley alike and they
>have a combined two seasons left on their deal (both
>utley's).

uh, I never said shit about rollins' or utley's contracts. in fact I never said anything negative about utley's play at all.

>wright and utley's numbers are really even across the board,
>sure, i'd take utley's defense and playoff performance over
>wright's in an instant though and this year wright is hitting
>like .240, not exactly winning fans back.

their numbers are really even across the board, sure, though wright's are slightly better and considering their respective home parks his #'s are really more impressive, not to mention the fact that wright is 4 years younger than utley and with chase's age & chronic knee condition wright will end up with the better numbers. as for this year wright played almost a month with a stress fracture in his back before he went on the DL which tanked his numbers early on, but he's been tearing the ball up since coming back and already has his average up to like .270 now so once again FOH.


>has rollins' contract hurt them? not a bit. has utley's? no.

have I ever said anything about rollins' or utley's contracts? no.

> even ibanez (more an internal critique from fans) has been
>about the right length, polanco's too. so far they have
>handicapped lengths well. even if what you're saying here or
>said in the past is not "bullshit," it's certainly
>inconsequential in terms of the team's overall success. one

again I never said anything in the past about the phillies' contracts so I really have no idea what the fuck you're talking about with all that shit.


>pick apart the fucking cubs if you want to have something to
>post about.

FOH, y'all manufactured this beef with the mets to begin with, I'll stop talking shit about the phils soon as y'all stop talking shit about the mets, pretty simple.


>again, you'd die to be the bravos or would you prefer being a
>hapless franchise on the verge of collapse?

again, right today you ARE the bravos so be happy with that instead of fronting like y'all are the NL yankees.

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Mar-A-Lago delenda est

FOH talking career numbers

aint yall the career record holder for most losses by a franchise in any sport...

wake me up when ur city has a sports idol not named Rocky Balboa

lol @ factoring in anything not directly related to the team that's ethering all teams in the hear & now.

there is no official cap
and the phillies print money right now
and they are winning (as usual)
the fact howard is having a down yr but the team is still excelling is just a testament to the stability of the franchise and how it will be ok in a worst case scenario (howard contract wise)
talk about reaching

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Mar-A-Lago delenda est

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Mar-A-Lago delenda est

lol

https://twitter.com/chuck4prez

I mean when his career is said and done he will have helped win 2 maybe 3 championships. If you dont spend money you wont lock down the players needed to build a team of this level. Is the trade off worth it? Imo fuck yeah it is.

November 8th, 2005 The greatest night in the history of GD!

Bobby Bonilla ???

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???

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???

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you can't understand it with an explanation

???

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you can't understand it with an explanation

???

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you can't understand it with an explanation

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Mar-A-Lago delenda est

Bonilla's contract is genius, however, it's structure was inspired by Saberhagen, who started receiving his annual $250K for the next 25 years in 04'...L

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you can't understand it with an explanation

http://30.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_loq2qhlopV1qzr7woo1_400.gif

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Mar-A-Lago delenda est

paying blanton that much is even dumber.

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Mar-A-Lago delenda est

We won a ring with Joe Blanton and I doubt the Phils resign him, what'd you win with those guys...that you're still paying...NOT TO PLAY

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if you won with blanton under that contract you might have a point... but you didn't, so you don't. since signing him to that extension blanton's posted an 81 ERA+ with batters hitting .291 against him last year + .331 this year - i.e., he's been terrible.

you'd be better off paying blanton not to play at this point... oh wait, you're basically doing that right now anyway.

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Mar-A-Lago delenda est

any guess where he ranks for MLB pitchers' salaries???

$21.6 mil is 2nd...to CC

how many games has he pitched this year?

aren't you still paying KRod to pitch for Milwaukee?

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