2. "RE: 5 year gamble" In response to Reply # 1 Sun Oct-30-11 11:20 PM by Flash80
>i think the above picks did well enough to take the profits >prematurely. >
yep, sold out of most of my long positions (DE, FCX, GS, MOS, RIG, SLV) on friday. the S&P 500 rallied 200 points in a month: too much, too fast.
waiting for the pullback.
>new picks, assuming prices from friday's closing: long MOS, >short POT; long NFLX, short P; long xvix, short gold; long >LTBR, short URA
curious, what's your rationale for the MOS/POT pairs trade? with the population boom not slowing down, fertilizer/potash prices are only going to rise across the space. and technically, looking at the chart, both have traded relatively in tandem.
if anything, POT's shown higher gross margins (49% vs. 32%). is MOS an undervalued play for you? less debt on the balance sheet?