It's gone up X10 in less than a year but with the demise of blockbuster and the growth of netflix streaming ready devices (i.e, netflix), I think they are going to double their membership in less than the next 24 months. It's also a service I recently got and believe in strongly. Netflix is the future of tv.
1. "i once had it at $70 . then again at $100 :(" In response to Reply # 0
last time i checked it was at $140 i just looked and the shit is at $162 right now wtf i had QLIK at $13 and recently sold it at like $23 i believe now it's at $26 i'm seriously thinking about holding on stuff longer going forward cause it's a hurt piece to look back and see all the money u COULD have
2. "it's been making new highs and blockbuster vid is done, so no." In response to Reply # 0
hell, the entire online services space has been on a tear --- AMZN, PCLN..
keep in mind though that NFLX is trading at inflating P/E of 65. so i'd expect to some serious selling if they don't beat big on their earnings release on 10/18.
but yeah, i don't think it's too late to buy, as the volume is increasing again, but i probably WOULD NOT hold an entire position through earnings. it's rallied 60% in two months!!! i mean what is this, '99?
i can see folks selling the news... and a pullback in NFLX would be healthy...so the rest of us who missed it can get in. LMAO.
8. "yeah the valuations are insane. a P/E of 77 and up 400% on.." In response to Reply # 7 Wed Dec-01-10 10:59 AM by Flash80
the year?! FOH.
i shorted it on 10/6 after it'd made a key reversal on big volume, but then i covered when it was clear they were gonna hold it @ $149.
the problem is that it gapped-up from 173 to 181 and the shorts had to cover AGAIN.
the parabolic move it's made is remarkable. technically overbought, yes, but i ain't getting in front of that freight train until it slows down.
but it is lagging the market today, and has almost traded it's 10-day-avg volume (5.5 MM shares)...and it's only 9am PST. so the sellers are out there.
i've been tied up long in FDX, RIMM and X and haven't been net-net short since mid-november, so i ain't mad. the S&P wants to test 1220 again. if the ADP jobs report that came out today is a harbinger for friday's employment #, we should get there.
14. "heavy short interest and thus no more shares to borrow. that happened" In response to Reply # 13
to me last year with AIG and this year with IWM (Russell 2000). depends on the broker, i guess.
he could probably just buy puts - january 175 strike is about $7 = $700 for one contract - and maybe sell covered calls to collect some premium and pay for it. or go with a put spread.
NFLX is gonna close below its 50-day moving average, so i can see it trading down to the $165 area, especially if the market corrects in january.
the tech sector overall has been dead money in december, and i personally i wouldn't do anything until next week when the big players come back from vacay and the volume/liquidity picks up.
9. "Scares the shit out of me." In response to Reply # 0 Mon Dec-20-10 01:44 PM by Triptych
I REAAAAALY wish I bought it at like $17 two years ago obviously.
But now: - It's trading at a very high P/E. - Their ENTIRE biz model rests on them signing good deals with media conglomerates - All the media conglomerates fucking hate them - They have absolutely no defense against GOOG, AMZN, AAPL, etc.
I just can't see them winning the streaming media industry. All they have is subscribers right now. I loved that they had 20M credit card numbers on file or whatever.
But so does AAPL And so does AMZN And so will GOOG
And all three of those companies have the capacity to starting serving 20M customers TOMORROW.
Can't buy in knowing that at ANY TIME any of those three companies could announce something that absolutely bodies NFLX overnight.
18. "Whitney Tilson yells "uncle" and covers his short on NFLX " In response to Reply # 0
so basically T2 Partners got stopped out of their position. valuations on the stock are ridiculous but you can't fight the tape either...especially when you take a 25% L.
30. "Starz pulling out of NFLX (swipe)" In response to Reply # 0
fuck this stock.
Netflix Inc. (NFLX), the online and DVD rental service, fell the most in more than a year after John Malone’s Starz LLC cable network ended contract renewal talks in a standoff over pricing.
Netflix slid $22.57, or 9.7 percent, to $210.70 at 9:45 a.m. New York time on the Nasdaq Stock Market after Starz, part of Liberty Media Corp., said yesterday it halted talks to renew an online viewing deal. Earlier, shares fell as low as $207.62, or 11 percent, the largest intraday drop since July 22, 2010.
Starz had sought an additional levy on Netflix users for its films and TV shows, and premium placement similar to deals with cable and satellite services, according to a person briefed on the talks who wouldn’t speak publicly.
If the contract lapses as scheduled on Feb. 28, Netflix will be without online access to films from Sony Pictures and Walt Disney Co. (DIS) The mail-order and online movie service may lose as much as 15 percent of its 25 million subscribers without Starz, said Michael Pachter, an analyst with Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles. Those would be in addition to defections from a price increase that took effect yesterday.
32. "looks like the NFLX bubble is finally over" In response to Reply # 0
$300 -> $160 in two months
the problem is folks and institutions who shorted it were several months too early and got their nuts handed to them in the process.
i can't really see any fundamental catalysts to take the stock sustainably higher. emerging markets growth in lesser developed nations seems ancillary at this point.
and technically, the chart's completely broken and has been since it started making lower lows.
i think there was arrogance on NLFX's part thinking they could the split streaming subscription from hard disk delivery, assuming customers would just grin and bear it because, well, they're Netflix.
and we haven't even touched on looming competition offering streaming, particularly if Starz decides to holler @ AMZN or a GOOG. NFLX's marketshare is eroding.
Watching this stock kind of shows why I don't invest in the stock market. I knew it was going to go up. It did. I figured it was going to go down. It did. How much money I could have lost or made off the stock depended mostly on timing. I am not built for that kind of investing. I guess its okay to do with play money I am not scared to lose which I usually spend at the casinos but not for my retirement money.
********** the test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.
