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To quote the Kool-Aid Man, "OH YEAH!" It's that time again, to put your mouths where everyone else's money is and predict the top ten films of 2012 (and, if you're adventurous, how much money they'll make.)
Can Avengers trump the Dark Knight? Do people still care about Men in Black? Will Snow White and the Huntsman break out or be the next X-Men: First Class? Can anything outbomb Battleship and its 200 million dollar budget?
Last year was tough but this looks like it could be the most difficult summer season yet. (For a look at the summer schedule - http://boxofficemojo.com/schedule/?view=bydate&release=all&date=2012-05-04&showweeks=4&p=.htm )
Here's my 10 with some commentary.
1. The Dark Knight Rises: 440 million This is the movie that everyone's waiting for. I have no doubt that it will do gangbusters but I don't think it's going to be able to match The Dark Knight. You can already tell that Tom Hardy's Bane and Anne Hathaway's Catwoman will not fill the huge shoes left by Heath Ledger's Joker (and yes, let's be real, Ledger's death also helped make the film bigger than expected.)
2. The Avengers: 365 million Most reviews have been calling this the best Marvel movie yet so I gave it a 50 million dollar bump from the biggest of the individual Avenger movies (Iron Man). It could crack 400 (usually the first big movie of the summer gets a decent box office bump) but I'm betting against it because I don't think it'll have the same out-of-demo draw that The Dark Knight does.
3. Spider-Man 3: 265 million This is a tough one. No Spidey movie dipped below 300 million with even the lousy Spider-Man 3 drawing 330 million. But the Spidey franchise made less money every time out and I don't know if anyone out there is all that excited to see a new, darker take on the ol' webhead's origin story. Also, this redux seems like an afterthought buzzwise (being drowned out by The Avengers, Batman, and even Prometheus) and it has just two weeks to make money before The Dark Knight Rises takes over the box office. On the bright side, Emma Stone and Andrew Garfield look pretty good and the new trailer is a MAJOR step forward from the first trailer.
4. Brave: 230 million I'm probably low on this one. I mean, a Pixar fairy tale that has action for boys and a female lead for the girls? There's just something about it, the more serious tone that makes it seem like the least kid-focused Pixar film since Up that gives me pause. Also, it's released just two weeks after Madagascar 3 and two weeks before Ice Age 3 so Pixar won't own the kiddie demo like it has in the past.
4. Prometheus: 198 million If Prometheus gets tagged with an R rating, I'm going to drop it down on the list. Already, I'm just not sure if this film is going to capture the masses and losing easy access to teenagers will be a big blow. The fans are excited but the fans were also excited for (and pleased by) X-Men: First Class and that film couldn't crack 150 million. Still, I'm not going to bet against Ridley Scott and his aliens.
6. MIB3: 190 million It's been a full decade since Men in Black 2 (shocking, I know) and four years since Will Smith's last film. While I'm not going to doubt Will's drawing power, I am concerned about the legs of the MIB franchise. The second film had a significant drop from the first from (250 to 190 million) and I don't think people are really itching for this one more than they were the second one. Plus, it doesn't have a lot of time to make money with some heavy hitters opening up on its heels. I'll say it'll repeat the business of #2 but I think there's a definite risk of this one disappointing.
7. Ice Age: Continental Drift: 175 million I'm a little nervous about Ice Age 3 because it's the third animated film of the summer (fourth, if you count "The Pirates! Band of Misfits" that opens this month). Also, I was burned last year by Kung Fu Panda 2 which landed at #11 and saw a 50 million dollar drop from the original's take.
8. Snow White and the Huntsman: 168 million I wanted to go higher with this one but if there's a potential X-Men: First Class of this summer, it's Snow White and The Huntsman. Yes, the trailer was impressive, it has Kristen Stewart coming off of Twilight and Chris Hemsworth coming off of The Avengers. It has something for boys and girls alike and it's a story that everyone knows (and safe from the "For Fanboys/Geeks" label of X-Men.) But Prometheus opens up the following weekend so the competition is going to be tough. Also, this is another one that has yet to be rated and an R would be a disaster.
9. GI Joe 2: 160 million I swore off this franchise after the first film which was just stupid but then I watched the trailer for this one and was stunned that they killed off (apparently) the Joes from the first movie. And then there were ninjas fighting on a mountain. Add in The Rock, Bruce Willis, and the always amazing Adrian Palicki and I have to think that it will do pretty well for itself, despite being released in the middle of a bunch of box office contenders.
10. Madagascar 3: 150 million I wasn't sold on this one but then my friend's daughter looked at the billboard for this film and exclaimed, "The animals are wearing rainbow wigs. On their HEADS!" I'm not sure where else they would wear the wigs but her unadulterated excitement convinced me to keep this in the top ten.
And my bomb of the year is Battleship with a nod to Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter as the film that most needs to get a new non-summer release date. ---- NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades
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