So I figure he signs another contract with a player option after 1-year (whether it's for two or three years total), then decides whether he signs the super-max deal.

And that is of course predicated on whether the Warriors win it all this year and/or next year. They win both, sure he stays for the Super-max. They win one and not the other, he probably stays for the supermax. They lose both, he at least explores other options.

I have no idea what other team's salary cap space is looking like after next season, but I imagine that it will make a lot of difference.