Last year's nice run to end the season was pretty noticeable, and I think it was typically attributed to a range of things:

a)different arm slot, the result of taking awhile to internalize some off-season makeover meant to make him healthier and more effective

b)increased slider usage

c)increased four-seam fastball usage

d)much, much worse competition

I didn't really notice item "a". He looked like exactly the same Kyle Gibson from the time the ball came out of his hand to the movement on his pitches. Ordinarily, I want to be a believer in a breakthrough like his for a much more observable reason. A bigger, badder fastball. A new breaking pitch. Etc. I didn't see that here.

I actually did notice item "b" and "c", though mostly in conjunction with each other. His strikeout rate really seemed to climb from a wholly new approach to pitch sequencing. He started throwing a curveball (which existed previously but which he didn't throw often) way more frequently - but not as a strikeout pitch. His existence prior to late 2017 was as a pure sinker/slider type and doing so in classic, predictable Twins fashion: throw sinkers to induce contact early in the count - throw a slider to finish somebody off, though usually for righties to roll over and not to swing over.

Late last season, he basically starting pitching backwards to most batters. He used the curveball (and still the sinker a lot) to set up hitters, and then used the slider (more frequently thrown way outside the zone as a pure chase pitch - there was an article in fangraphs about this) and for the first time since he's been a pro as far as I can remember, a four seam fastball up in the zone to induce swings and misses. It was a new approach and one that seemed to work really well to ambush hitters who were used to the old Kyle Gibson.

The problem, though, is that as long as his pitches aren't demonstrably better in velocity and movement, I pretty much expect hitters to adjust to his new, weirder sequencing. Furthermore, I worry about starts like his one the other day - which was excellent but included a LOT of walks. I don't mind them necessarily, especially because they connote a real change in approach: 2017-2018 Kyle Gibson understands there are worse things than throwing pitches out of the zone, namely - throwing pitches in the zone that are hit really, really hard.

But his stuff still isn't good enough to keep putting guys on base and I don't think he can sustain the success of his new approach without both/either:

1)hitters adjusting
2)walking a lot of guys

Which makes me think that the biggest reason for his 2017 late-season success was the competition. His run and the Twins team run to the playoffs was built on the same thing: an AL Central that was absolute dogshit except for the Indians and (sort of) the Twins. He faced a lot of terrible lineups over that last eight weeks.

I guess the good news is that MLB teams still play pretty heavy divisional schedules even in the new era of constant interleague play, so it's not like Kyle Gibson is going to stop seeing a lot of the White Sox, Tigers, and Royals (who've gotten worse since last year). The league could adjust to Gibson and he'll see a dropoff, but if a huge chunk of the Twins schedule is still three incredibly shitty lineups then he could still be a lot better than the old Kyle Gibson.

But that's probably as far as I'm willing to go. And, unrelated, thanks for asking. It's really fun to talk about baseball again.