(to answer my question, espn hasn't yet decided how scoring will change or if there will be changes atall)

Eric Karabell
ESPN Senior Writer

Shohei Ohtani has incredible potential as a two-way MLB player, but how should fantasy players value him ahead of the 2018 season?
There’s every reason for Los Angeles Angels fans and fantasy managers to be intrigued and excited about Japanese import Shohei Ohtani due to the endless statistical possibilities. The problem is many of these possibilities for the 2018 season seem unrealistic. A Cy Young-caliber starting pitcher and an awesome, middle-of-the-order power hitter all in one player? Where do I sign up?

Fantasy managers want to rewrite the rules on how such a player could alter the sport. Hey, I’m as optimistic as the next person, but when someone asks me how to value the newest Japanese import for double duty, something unprecedented in modern baseball, my answer is pretty simple: It won’t be me finding out.

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As colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft informed with expert aplomb, Ohtani, 23, has to overcome several hurdles to warrant the lofty attention and list of comparable options he’s getting. One, he needs to stay healthy, no small feat considering he missed most of last season with ankle and hamstring injuries. Two, the Angels actually need to present him substantial at-bats to make it worth any fantasy manager’s while to consider him an asset on the hitting side, and then Ohtani has to prove he can hit like an everyday option. This sport isn’t exactly easy, you should know.

Ohtani is a potential ace hurler but hasn’t shown durability, and at the plate he hasn’t faced top pitching on any consistent basis. Frankly, I’m just viewing him as a pitcher and he should be a good one, as Cockcroft notes, capable of high strikeout totals and solid run-prevention tools. It’s a sloppy comparison based mainly on where they come from, but Yu Darvish comes to mind as a comparison. Darvish strikes hitters out and has had varying degrees of success in staying healthy and suppressing runs. Darvish also came to the Texas Rangers ready for 200 innings of work. Ohtani has never approached this figure and the Angels haven’t shared much on how they intend to use him. Will he get as many as 150 innings?

In an era in which 200-inning pitchers are becoming more rare by the season -- only 15 pitchers made it in 2017 -- fantasy managers should indeed lower expectations for volume in general, without missing out on upside. It is certainly possible Ohtani is special and dominates a new league of hitters for 25-plus starts, which would perhaps land him among the top-10 fantasy pitchers. Let’s grant that is plausible. Darvish didn’t do that in his first MLB season, though. His ERA was 3.90 and he didn’t carry the physical burden of hitting on even a semi-regular basis.

Cockcroft’s current top-300 rankings for 2018 lists fellow right-handers Jake Arrieta, Gerrit Cole and Aaron Nola as top-20 caliber pitchers, and each is a more proven, statistical commodity, and two of them and perhaps three -- Arrieta is a free agent, as of Monday -- pitch in the National League. Moving further down the rankings Kyle Hendricks, Jose Berrios and countryman Masahiro Tanaka are top-30 options. I agree with Cockcroft that Ohtani belongs in this class of fantasy assets based on the strikeout upside, and I’m more willing than perhaps ever to take chances on starting pitchers likely to fall short of even 175 innings, but obvious question marks remain.

Angels manager Mike Scioscia claims Ohtani will earn every chance to contribute at the plate and perhaps that’s even possible, but this is hardly a manager known as an out-of-the-box thinker. Ohtani would need to serve as the team’s designated hitter, which pushes statue-like Albert Pujols to first base. Perhaps Scioscia doesn’t think such a move will harm the defense. Perhaps he also couldn’t give a hoot about analytics and how they’re helpful. Ohtani might out-hit Pujols -- not a high bar there -- but it’s unlikely he gets the chance on a regular basis. And as Keith Law noted, Ohtani is far from a guarantee at the plate.


It’s exciting that Ohtani went against conventional wisdom in not only rushing to the major leagues -- and costing himself literally millions of dollars in the eager process -- and in choosing the organization that he did, but reaching up to the fifth or sixth round for a pitcher that only might stay healthy and seems unlikely to provide hitting value seems silly to me. Yes, Ohtani is the new prize for fantasy managers to dream about and there’s always going to be someone in a league willing to pay up for the hotshot rookie that hasn’t failed yet in the major leagues. Ohtani could be great. He could throw an amazing 175 innings and hit like an All-Star, in theory.

I just find it dangerous to rely on theories when selecting options for fantasy teams. How many other hitters with little promise of regular at-bats are you targeting? How many starting pitchers that have yet to approach 170 innings are you targeting? And while ESPN hasn’t announced how such a player will or even can be handled for fantasy purposes, it’s kind of irrelevant for me. Let someone else pay too much in a draft or auction for a pitcher -- not a hitter -- that hasn’t earned a top-100 spot yet. Frankly, I can’t wait to see him pitch and hit, but the former remains far from guaranteed and the latter is, taking context of volume into account, mostly a dream at this point.