we're not getting 20 wins better in one year. i'd be thrilled if we got 11 wins better. hence #30Quest

Incidentally, that's why I consider the Knicks a longshot as well. Carmelo's all-time best win shares is 10.7. Robin Lopez's is 9.5, Affalo's is 6.2. If they hit those career highs again, that's an additional 23.5 wins (because Melo gave them 2.9 win shares last year, he'd "only" add 7.8 wins).

Add those 23.5 to the 17 wins the Knicks got last year and you've got 40.5 wins, which rounded up would've put the Knicks in a tie for the 6 seed.

Now, look, obvious limits to this type of analysis. It could be that lopez and afflalo mesh really with last year's guys and help elevate their win shares, that last year's guys placed in more appropriate roles will play better, that Fish will improve in year 2, etc.

However, I don't find any of that nearly as compelling as the argument that, uh, it's not realistic to expect 3 guys to hit their career highs in win shares in the same season while two of them are still getting used to the Knicks program.

just to guess, i'd set the Knicks over/under at 35 wins, and i don't think that will be enough.