i'm not arguing melo wouldn't make you better. i'm arguing that he would not make you better enough in the next 2-3 years to sniff a title. even if noah reverses his decline and rose turns back into a 20ppg, efficient player (neither of which is likely to happen), you're not going to be good enough to get out of the East absent multiple* Cleveland injuries, let alone deal with the West. going all in for melo now isn't going to work, and it means you're going to be saddled with another awful contract once melo's decline starts...or continues, given that, you know, he didn't play last year.

*=a hypothetical Bron injury counts as "multiple injuries" alone

the play for you guys is to not take on any contracts longer than 2 years besides jimmy and maaaaaybe big nik. i don't think you have to flip guys for assets or anything, but just ride out with what you got for two years. enjoy your 50 wins and second round exits. meanwhile, keep drafting smart. if you play this right, as soon as rose contract expires you can go big into free agency.

i'm not motivated by Bulls hate in this one. i'm probably motivated by Melo hate a little. mostly, though, i'm motivated by common sense. every statistical model we have says melo won't age particularly well, and he's signed forever. he's not the play.