| Go back to previous topic | | Forum name | Okay Sports | | Topic subject | its playing probability. the smart play objectively is to go. | | Topic URL | http://board.okayplayer.com/okp.php?az=show_topic&forum=8&topic_id=2388270&mesg_id=2407025 |
2407025, its playing probability. the smart play objectively is to go.
Posted by cgonz00cc, Mon Jan-05-15 02:01 PM
There is nothing else to it.
35 yards of field position is worth nothing.
http://wp.advancedfootballanalytics.com/winprobcalc1.php
The lions punting and DAL starting their drive on the 15 adds 0.01 to the Lions win probability
The Lions making a first down adds 0.09.
Obviously there is risk, but there is risk in punting too, as we all saw.
Bad call.
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