Tier 4: Championship? Maybe
#8 Ceej
Ceej had a uncharacteristically good draft helped by the trade with Frank - though he missed on some guys in the middle rounds Big Al and Gasol will anchor his middle nicely. I wonder which of those Fs will step up for him. I really liked the Thad pick when it happened, but on second thought I think he ends up being better in real life than .WS. The guards are led by Lillard who I think continues to improve and I think he might’ve gotten one of the best values in the draft with Deron Williams where he did. In hindsight I wouldnt have drafted Deron or Wade, but I might actually want Deron on my team over Wade. If Kemba reproduces last year - he’ll be up there with the best guard units in the league.
Lynchpin Player: I was going to say Deron, but I’d actually feel more confident with Deron reproducing when healthy. I wonder if Lillard can get back to where he was or better in .WS. which wasnt great because of his minutes.
Lillard 1.12↑: Did his game mature after a summer with Team USA?
Kemba: 1.15↑: Slept on player whose consistently been above 1.10. Does lance hurt or help?
Marc Gasol 1.2↑: Slight uptick nothing spectacular.
Al Jefferson 1.44↑: He’s pretty healthy and I see a monster year for him.
Deron: 1.20↑:Even in most his bad years his around 1.10. He won’t be elite, but he’ll be good til he’s hurt.
Kobe 1.07↑: I think health wont be an issue and reduced minutes help. But will he pass the ball and get any assists?
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Tier 4: Championship Maybe
#7 Longo
Longo loves this team a lot but I think he did himself a disservice trading down for Rubio. According to Synergy a high% of Rubios assists last year went to Klove for jumpshots. Frank’s really only ranked this high because CP3 is THAT good. For some reason he keeps just trying to rebuild his championship team over and over again.This year he’s surrounded with terrible shooters, and granted he may get more assists in transitions I think we see a fall off. Larry Sanders could be a great pick if he can stay healthy (he’s already hurt again). I love the Draymond Green pick. In a contract year he does everything and plays limited minutes. That will really help Frank’s team on his good nights. I had to laugh when Frank pick Jordan Farmar and texted me that he couldnt believe Farmar was still on the board at that point. He’s not the passing pg that will pick up really well behind Paul in WS, conversely Andre Miller was a great pick and will eventually be Frank’s #3. This isn’t the juggernaut Frank team of 2 seasons ago, he’ll have some waiver wire work to do, and if CP3 goes down for 20 games again, watch out now.
Lynchpin Player: For Frank I think this is Larry Sanders. If he can get anywhere near 1.4 and 39 ppg from 2 years ago, thats 2 guys in 60 minutes that will give Frank around 100 with CP3 thats a hell of a boost.
Max FPPM Key Players:
Larry Sanders 1.27↑: Up from last year but not back to elite. Just a above average C who misses some games.
Henson 1.23↑: See Sanders, Larry.
CP3 1.55↓: Last year was insane. I see a “regression” to the meanif you can call it that. The Clippers will look to rest him more and he’s a year older.
Ricky Rubio 1.23↓: Explained above

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Tier 4: Championship Maybe
#6 Ryan:
Monster Front line that will have some huge games. Downright Scary. After those 3 I dont like the depth on the team. Jabari is going to be up and down in .ws. Parker is consistent but misses games and doesnt have a lot of upside. Monta was at his best last year and still eh. Don’t trust Payton yet. Funny I say this, but Amare could be the guy who actually brings the rest of the Fs back to life.
Lynchpin Player:
Elfrid Payton: If he can have a 1.1 type season Ryan instantly jumps into contender tier.
Max FPPM Key Players:
Deandre 1.38↑: DJ keeps getting better.
Bron 1.45↑: Not as many big games but consistently great and less minutes.
Monroe 1.25↑: Gets back to his 1.2 ways.
TP 1.07 -: It’s not going back up from here.
Monta .98↓: Regression to the mean Monta.

Tier 4: Championship Maybe
#5 TJT:
Anthony Davis, Anthony Davis, Anthony Davis. AD has the potential to set records in this league if he can stay healthy. 1.60 isnt out of the realm of possibility. I love the Dalembert pick. Always a value late. We’ll see what happens with Brook. Tjones is great but on that Houston squad will be up and down. A lot is riding on Hayward and Kawhi stepping up here if Bledsoe can just stay healthy now that he’s gotten paid.
Lynchpin Player: TJT drafted Kawhi projecting a 1.25+ projection. That isnt out of the realm of possibility seeing how he finished the season and the finals. Pop claims they will run plays for him - but we’ll see what happens in the Spurs System. Doesnt help that he’s missed a ton of preseason. If he’s 1.25+ TJT will have some big games
Max FPPM Key Players:
AD: 1.65↑: Primed for the greatest .WS season ever.
Brook: 1.15↓: I don’t think he makes it through another season.
Dalembert: 1.23↑: Plays well cleaning up Knicks messes on both ends.
TJones: 1.15↓: gets better in real life but production slips because Dwight is better.
Kawhi 1.26↑: Stage 1 into him becoming a full fledge star.
Bledsoe: 1.15↑: Slight uptick but doesnt do enough assists to be truly elite.
Hayward: 1.10↑: has a nice season and starts to show his playmaking more.
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Tier 3: Championship Maybe?
#4 Basa
Another team I didnt like at first during the draft until further review. The injury prone stud centers wont be bad if theyre out on an alternating basis. When theyre together they'll be nice-though wasted minutes abound. I have a gut feeling Varejao wont miss a whole lot of games this year. Blake and Pau will hold down the F position with Jordan Hill as the perfect big cleanup man. This might be the deepest Front line so far. But wait -- whose starting at Guard? Darren Collison and Brandon Knight? Doh! There will be some nice games from this team when the guards play well. I actually like Collison a lot. IT3 was overrated in Sac. He had the ball a lot and a high usage. Collison will have the ball a lot also He isnt the scorer IT3 was, but a better and more willing passer. He will be fine. I dont expect Nash to play more than 41 games and that might be generous. Brandon Knight is a mediocre WS player. He just doesnt pass the ball well enough to be good here and now jabari will eat into his ppg.
Lynchpin Player: I think Darren Collison is the x-factor here. If he can get into 1.07-1.1 territory (completely possible in Sac offense) this team will contend.
B Klay Thompson: He’s been on absolute fire in preseason but he plays so many minutes and in the past hasnt done enough other stuff. In the preseason he’s had a couple 5 assists games with kerr’s ball movement. Overall as hot as he’s been he’s still right around 1.0 (still a .21 jump from last season)
Max FPPM Key Players:
Bogut : 1.32↓: Goes down a bit but plays more games.
Andy: 1.35↑: Has the potential to have a big year again with Bron back.
Blake: 1.46↑: Primed for an MVP type season. Needs to get back to early career rebounding to really make it happen but his coring is going to go up.
Pau 1.351↓: Him and Noah will “neutralize” each other abit if you can call it that.
Collison: 1.08↑: System pg but may only play about 26 mpg