Tier 3: Starting to get warm
#12 Boogs
Boogs has been on his typical Eeyore, but the truth is his team isn’t that bad. I would’ve drafted differently at 10, 15, and 18 but Boogs went with 2 top guards and Joakim. Can’t be mad at the two guards but I don’t know about Jo this season. Pau is going to eat away at some of Jo’s numbers and i don’t know how healthy he is with reports from the summer. The good news is this maybe allows Jo to play less and stay more healthy. Boogs generally drafted safe and reliable which was the smart move given his drafting situation. I’d worry about the F situation. No reliable big time guys and no depth. Needs the coined “Smedium 3” to come up big.
Lynchpin Player: For Boogs to jump into the top half he needs Giannis to get his Ak47 on. Boogs is praying the Giannis at pg experiment is officially over.
Max FPPM Key Players:
Joakim 1.35↓: Down a bit from last year because of Pau
John Wall 1.33↑: Best season of his .WS Career as his game continues to mature.
Lowry 1.29↑: Someone said he had no upside. I dont believe that. I think DeRozan’s development helps him.
Giannis 1.10 ↑: Next year is his real big season.
Taj : 1.10 ↑: Gets back to form with less minutes and more efficiency.



Tier 3: Starting to get warm
#11 Matty
Matty drafted a real solid team. Fun fact: Matty and I were close to making the deal that Boogs and I made with his picks. Matty actually agreed to do the deal first, but Boogs had picks I liked more. Look for the future Shawnland article that breaks down how I would’ve drafted differently if I had Matty’s picks and Vice Versa. Anyhow Matty has a young beast in Drummond but I really worry about his F situation. Ibaka will regress with the emergence of Adams. I like Parsons to get better, but not elite because of minutes. Goran is frustrating because he will absolutely have huge nights. He will also have nights with lots of minutes and not so good output. Maybe IT3 changes that for the better. I like Trey Burke in .WS I dont think he’s a great real life pg, but he gets great usage in an offense where he’s the best ball handler by far.
Lynchpin Player: For Deyote to compete with the elite with this roster he needs Chandler Parsons to be closer to 1.10. I think he can do it because he will rebound better and have the ball a bit more in his hands for assists. That said, I think he ends up closer to 1.05.
Max FPPM Key Players:
Drummond 1.55↑: Can be an even bigger beast if he puts it together and his offensive game matures. His minutes will always be nicely limited because the frontcourt depth.
Ibaka 1.18↓: Serge, meet Steven. Steven takes boards (that is as long as Brooks starts him).
Parsons 1.10↑: See above
Dragic 1.15↑: Slight uptick but not enough for Matty.
Trey Burke: 1.10↑: Lots of time with the ball, lots of pick n roll action.

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Tier 3: Starting to get Warm
#10 Robe
I don’t like this team as much now as I liked it during and post draft - but it’s dangerous. Dwight is going to have a BIG year and was undervalued this year. In a bad season last year he was still at 1.35. Best C’s so far. Love Faried in real life, but think his summer overvalued him in .ws. After faried the Fs dropoff significantly. I’m a big fan of Leuer in .WS but he will be up and down and you dont want that as a 2nd F. How long will Rajon be out? I think Stan will help Jennings a lot and Ramon is gonna be solid.
Lynchpin Player: Hmmmm is it Rondo or Jennings? Rondo if he plays needs to get to old form, if Robe doesnt really get Rondo he won’t be good. If Rondo plays he needs Jennings to step up as a 2nd Guard to push him to contend.
Max FPPM Key Players:
Dwight: 1.45↑: Another MVP like season pits him back on the map.
Faried: 1.30↑: Good but not good enough to carry Robe’s Fs
Tristan: 1.10↑: Nice uptick and more efficient with Cavs.
Rajon: 1.30↓: We’ll see how much he plays but hes never below 1.3
Jennings: 1.15↑: Stan, Those Bigs to throw lobs too, and a bigger commitment to passing.

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Tier 3: Starting to get warm
#9 Theo
Every year I rank Theo’s boring teams low. Every year he kicks my ass. I’m happy to get out of his division for the first time in 10 years. Omer is gonna have a nice year, and Hibbert is gonna have a minor bounceback. Love isnt going to be as big, but may be more efficient. Lee and Horford round out the best F group so far. G’s are boring and actually kind of sucky with no upside. 3 headed Mavs Gs, really?
Lynchpin Player: Horford needs to stay healthy. If not this team is a lot worse. and drops out of tier 3.
Max FPPM Key Players:
Omer: 1.25↑: Has a career year defending Anthony Davis but doesnt do enough with blocks and points to really be special.
Hibbert: 1.15↑: Back to somewhere between last season and the ones before.
Love: 1.43↓: Falls off but still an elite .WS guy
Horford 1.29↓: Coming back from injury things get spread out a bit in ATL.
Conley 1.10↓: Gatekeeper
Calderon 1.06↓: Triangle takes the ball out of his hands and assists drop