ier 2: Outside shot but not really
#15 Auragin
In recent years Auragin has turned into the old man of .ws he passes up on analytics and upside for the good players of years past/traditional stats with mixed results. This year’s boring team is going to be pretty average until he hits the wire. Rose’s best .ws seasons came in his MVP seasons where we was still just 1.28. At his best he’s a very good but not elite player. Demarcus is gonna carry him but Zach and Dwest will fall slightly. Lance is great in real life but in .ws? No thanks. Jimmy Butler, Ditto
Lynchpin Player: This team’s ultimate success rests on DRose. He’s one of the few players on the team with upside. If he gets back to MVP form and gets to 1.28 or gasp… 1.30 just him and Cousins alone will win games when other guys fill their roles.
Max FPPM Key Players:
Drose 1.23↑: Better than last season but not great.
Born Ready: 1.05 ↑: I dont see it, but I’m going max here. Maybe he has the ball a lot and doesnt play as many minutes - but 1.05 is the max.
Boogie 1.6 ↑: He matures and gets even better, but doesn’t block enough shots and turns it over too much to go into God Mode
Zbo 1.14↓: Slight decline for Zbo starts his ultimate decline in future years


Tier 2: Outside shot but not really
#14 Beathustla
Let’s be clear. There’s a huge gap between 16 and 15. Houston had a solid draft and has an outside shot, but he’s gonna have to make some moves on the wire. I like Kaman this year but not as a C1. LMA was a beast last year but I think he went a little high this year. I think his career high rebounds will drop this season. Either way the rest of the Fs leave a lot to be desired. I know how good Derozan is in rea life, but here? With this many good forwards no excuse for this mediocre a group. Ty Lawson could be a steal where he went if he stays healthy. Teague is solid, I dont quite know what to think of IT3 we should see early on.
Lynchpin Player: If Teague can keep his upward trend and end up more towards 1.15 next to Ty Lawson then his team is gonna be more trouble than I thought but still the Fs will be the killer.
Max FPPM Key Players:
Lamarcus Aldridge 1.34↓: Still a stud but a slight drop off from last season as rebounds drop. Regression to mean.
DeRozan 1.07 ↑: Nice uptick but ultimately his minutes are what keeps him from being a 1.1 G.
Rudy Gay .97↓: Back to his usual mediocre .ws self.
Ty Lawson: 1.19 ↓: Injury keeps him from replicating last year in fppg and gp
Teague: ↑ Continues upswing to 1.14


Tier 2: Outside shot but not really
#13 Smithers
Smithers another case of average Cs with limited upside. Gortat is frustrating to own because he’ll have big games but then he’ll kill you with bad games. Hawes is solid I wouldve rather had Kamania for an efficiency backup C with Bosh clear to cleanup. I’m not as high on Bosh as a lot of you are. He doesn’t rebound well enough and won’t again at this point in his career. Millsap was signifigantly worse last year with Horford so pray he gets hurt again. I think Ersan can actually help this F crew be respectable. Love Steph to be at 1.3+ again. If Monty plays Reke as much as he’s been doing, Jrue is gonna be back to some damaged goods. After that at G…
Lynchpin Player: For Cenario to be as good as he thinks he is, he will need Jrue to get back to 1.2+. I think it’s more realistic he ends up in 1.10s.
Max FPPM Key Players:
Gortat 1.13↓: Last year was his contract year, it won’t get much better than that.
Bosh 1.18↑: Somewhere between old Bosh and Big 3 Bosh. But not what Cenario wants or needs.
Millsap 1.24↑: Production falloff next to Horford.
Ersan 1.10↑: His reemergence helps Cenario a bit.
Steph: 1.33↓: He’s still great but ball movement offense spreads love a bit.
Jrue 1.18↓: Loses touches to Tyreke and boards to Omer.