>having given a casual glance at berrios' line in cedar rapids,
>i'm a little sad. still has the high K numbers, but his H/9
>ballooned and the SO/BB tanked. to be expected, like you said,
>but i was hoping those wouldn't show the dramatic drop they
>have.

Yeah. The walks were pretty disappointing to me. It's not even an above-average amount, but he was throwing darts in 2012. I'm going to remain agnostic on H/9 for the lower levels because the consistency of defense behind him is... not strong at that level. And I read a few notes, specifically on Berrios' starts, that he needed to do a better job of shaking off the particularly unimpressive defense that was often played behind him. Which is still a criticism, but a different sort.

I'm going to swipe a Baseball Prospectus "Eyewitness Report" on Berrios that was mostly optimistic, but interesting for a dimmer view on his fastball than others. I think the big takeaway was that acclimating to a full-season league meant he went into some starts kind of dragging ass - which happens. Because returns on his fastball this season were definitely mixed, from bumping 97mph on occasion to this one of 91-93mph. And there wasn't a straight line of decline either. This one also came after the report I read dinging her for composure after getting some bad luck - and specifically complimented him for doing just that. We'll see, I guess:

Compact delivery; solid tempo; easy arm action out of 3/4 slot; repeats slot and arm speed across offerings; maintains tempo from wind-up and stretch; some sweep on the backside but generally hits checkpoints; slightly larger circle than previous views; can occasionally get late hand break entering stride, causing arm drag.

#1 Pitch
Fastball: 91-93; velo built throughout start and sat in upper range in final inning; at best works east-to-west and sets up secondaries; lacks plane and is easy to lift up in the zone; enough giddy-up to miss bats, particularly when working backwards.
Grade: Present 50/Future 55

#2 Pitch
Curveball: 77-78, 11-to-5; future plus pitch flashes already; good shape and late action; high comfort level with offering; worked inside to RHH without fear; first time through lineup set up with fastball, then flipped second time through; slight inconsistencies in arm action/release threw off command, but correctable; typical low-level inconsistencies in shape, but not long-term concern; will be a weapon at highest level.
Grade: Present 50/Future 60

#3 Pitch
Changeup: 79-81; will flash sharp late drop; not commanding pitch yet, but showed some ability to drop in the zone; enough comfort to throw when behind in count, but primarily a change-of-pace pitch when ahead; will be third average or better offering; enough overall feel for craft that it wouldn’t surprise if pitch ultimately surpasses future grade.
Grade: Present 40/Future 50

Other
Diminutive height robs fastball of plane, forcing him to work down in the zone; upper-level hitters will force more precision when he elevates; sturdy lower-half and arm speed help generate velocity; projects to solid durability in spite of size; advanced feel for sequencing, given developmental level; plus mound presence—handled bad hops and inconsistent defense behind him with aplomb; handles running game well; 1.29-1.37 to home; “gets it” on the mound; knows how to pitch.

Overall
The easy knock on Berrios is his height, and as noted he can get into trouble when he works loosey-goosey when elevating. While he’s shown a plus fastball in the past, the pitch and the package look more like a future 55 right now. Mature approach, centered mound presence, and feel for secondaries are all big pluses. Sequencing and quality of CB/CH combo should help keep barrels off the fastball, but he’ll need to be precise in the zone. Projects well as starter, but lack of dominant fastball limits overall ceiling. High risk due to distance from majors and lack of track record over full season. If shifted to pen, would not be surprised to see fastball sit mid-90s when all said and done. In short bursts, FB/CB combo could be late-inning caliber.
OFP Grade: 55; no. 3/no. 4 Starter
Risk: High