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Topic subjectFangraphs: Twins prospects list
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2522714, Fangraphs: Twins prospects list
Posted by Walleye, Sat Mar-05-16 10:40 AM
This is maybe the longest prospect write-up I've seen, and it's free. For those two reasons, I'm not going to swipe the whole thing and rather encourage clicking through.

It's really effusive. The good news is that they don't see any diminishment in Buxton's upside. They think that Park will absolutely whale (that's in the swiped portion - so read). Berrios can be a top of the rotation god. And - this is nice because it's the second time I've read a prospect writer say-so this week - they think that Jorge Polanco will be more than adequate defensively at shortstop.

It's down on Tyler Jay, which is fine. Ditto Alex Meyer, though he sounds willing to go nuts on him if he starts finding the plate.

He ranks Chargois at the top of the bullpen arms that haven't debuted yet. That's new to me, but Chargois has apparently been bumping triple digits just like Burdi but without the pro struggles.

LaMonte Wade and Wander Javier show up as the obligatory "here are some guys you haven't heard of that I'm ranking highly." They're names you should know though. Wade is a do-everything-pretty-well NCAA pick that destroyed E-Town. He probably profiles as a really valuable fourth outfielder who can start in center for a second division team. But there's upside that sounds a lot like Denard Span.

Javier is the guy who broke Miguel Sano's club record for international bonus, but it didn't get the same hype because bonuses have gotten relatively huge. Still a giant expenditure for the Twins though, and it sounds like he could be really good.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-2016-prospects-minnesota-twins/

Evaluating the 2016 Prospects: Minnesota Twins
by Dan Farnsworth - March 4, 2016

1. Byron Buxton, OF
Current Level/Age: MLB/22.3, 6’2/190, R/R
Acquired: Drafted 2nd overall (1st round) in 2012 out of Georgia HS by MIN for $6 million bonus
Previous Rank: 1
Buxton had a rough year in 2015 and has more questions surrounding him now than at the beginning of last season, when he was the consensus number-one prospect in baseball. It’s easy to worry about him being injury prone after two seasons in a row where he missed a chunk of time, but I think it may be too early to knock him down off his throne. A combination of a sprained thumb and perhaps a slightly premature introduction to the majors were mostly to blame for his subpar performance. His approach was more aggressive in the big leagues than it had ever been previously, though I’m willing to chalk it up to not being able to get acclimated while dealing with his time off.

Buxon is still a plus hitter with at least average power. He’s still one of the best base-runners in the game, and small sample last year aside, still projects as one of the better defensive center fielders in the league. With his injuries all being unrelated the last two years, I’m assuming good health without much reservation. And if he’s healthy, his only adjustment will be taking his advanced minor-league approach into his at bats against big-league pitchers, which will be much easier when he isn’t having to deal with physical problems.

2. Jose Berrios, RHP
Current Level/Age: Triple-A/21.8, 6’0/185, R/R
Acquired: Drafted 32nd overall (Supp 1st round) in 2012 out of Puerto Rico HS for $1.55 million bonus
Previous Rank: 3

Berrios has three pitches that are all tough on hitters — even when he throws them in the zone. He throws strikes and has a deep enough arsenal to turn over lineups and face teams multiple times over the course of a season right now. There are some slight mechanical issues to work out, but nothing he won’t be able to figure out on the fly, as he’s a tremendous athlete on the mound. He gets a little too closed off at times and has to force his upper body through, and he may need subtle adjustments here and there with his tempo, but he’s also not even 22 years old yet and had no problem cruising through Triple-A lineups last year.

His fastball sits in the low- to mid-90s, but has reached up to 98 in the past. His changeup is already a plus to plus-plus pitch with enough fade to get righties and lefties out, complemented by a solid breaking ball. His curve is regarded as clear third pitch, but the feel he shows for adding and subtracting speed with great movement may give him a third plus offering at its peak.

Berrios is a stud in waiting, and should get the chance to start his reign over the Twins rotation pretty quickly this season. Look for him to be a strong contender for Rookie of the Year after some seasoning in Triple-A.

3. Byung-ho Park, 1B
Current Level/Age: NA/29.7, 6’1/236, R/R
Acquired: Signed in 2015 out of Korea for $12.85 million posting fee and 4 years/$12 million
Previous Rank: NA

Park is going to mash in the big leagues. While Jung-ho Kang is a completely different athlete, it’s helpful to compare the two to get a sense for how well Park’s abilities will translate stateside. While Park had the higher strikeout rate in Korea, he also shows a better ability manipulating his bat to get the barrel on tough pitches. He drew more walks, and his simpler swing should allow him more time than Kang to read pitches, giving him a good chance of continuing to rack up free passes against big-league pitching.

With regard to his swing, Park is superior in nearly every way to Kang. He has a stronger lower half with more stability and a quicker drive, a shorter path to the ball with his barrel and more reliable lift that results in high line drives and hard fly balls everywhere between right and left field. Barring some unforeseen change in his approach, or a drastic reduction in his contact rate, Park has a high probability of outpacing Kang’s impressive production with the bat.

Obviously, Park won’t provide as much defensive or base-running value as Kang, being a first baseman by trade. Though he’s likely to be the Twins’ designated hitter, his defense comes with the reputation of being solid at the cold corner. He moves well on the bases for a slugger, having stolen 10 bases in 2015. The only reservation is regarding his contact, about which some evaluators have raised concerns. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit for a lower average, but the power threat he provides will force pitchers to work around him and let him take his walks, counteracting the potential high strikeout rate with plenty of on-base opportunities.

4. Max Kepler, LF
Current Level/Age: MLB/23.1, 6’4/205, L/L
Acquired: Signed in 2009 out of Germany by MIN for $800,000 bonus
Previous Rank: 14

Kepler had everything going right last year as he stormed through the Double-A Eastern League. He hit for the best power, stole the most bases and had the highest walk rate of his minor-league career. It led to a short debut in the big leagues, setting him up for more appreciable playing time for the parent club in 2016.

For a player coming from Germany, Kepler is surpisingly polished at the plate. His plate discipline has gotten stronger as he has come up through the system, and he has a strong swing built for hitting line drives around the field. He can get overactive with his front shoulder, leading to more than a few ground balls to the right side, but he hits everything hard and gets his hands on level with the pitch early in his swing. The shift will take away a few more hits in the majors, but his ability to take a walk will help counteract whatever he loses in hit totals.

He has developing power that could make a 55-ceiling grade look light eventually, but for now he has strong gap power with more homer pop to the pull side. While his fielding is fringe-average in the outfield, his bat more than makes up the difference to profile as an above-average regular with upside as an All-Star.

5. Jorge Polanco, SS
Current Level/Age: Triple-A/22.7, 5’11/200, B/R
Acquired: Signed in 2009 out of Domincian Republic by MIN for $775,000 bonus
Previous Rank: 7

Polanco is a versatile player with excellent ability on both sides of the ball. He has solid hands and range to go with an average arm and quick release, which allows him to play anywhere on the infield very well. There is talk of him moving off shortstop at some point, but he’s already league average there defensively. The only reason to move him would be because he can handle second or third, and you have another shortstop who’s one of the best in the league

He’s going to hit for a high average with occasional pop on mistake pitches, though he will need to continue honing his plate discipline and not lean on his hand-eye coordination too much. He will chase balls just because he can hit them, though obviously he would benefit from putting himself in the best counts possible and driving pitches in the zone. Polanco has more power from the left side with a bit more athleticism in the box, but his righty swing will play fine as well. His hit tool may be limited slightly on account of the unsure on-base and plate-discipline future, but he can hit his way to at least a 55 grade there, or even better if the walks show up. He’s very difficult to strike out, and has shown he can use his speed to contribute on the base paths as well.