There’s a chance maybe Ferrara can ride the Barbie wave to a major upset, but I think it’s Randolph’s to lose. And yeah, I’d be thrilled too. The Holdovers was probably my favorite movie of all the ones nominated (though a couple others are neck and neck— like I said, really good year), and Randolph was great in it. It’s so easy for that part to fall into something one-note— but both the movie and performer are too smart for that.

I was very disappointed Penelope Cruz didn’t make it into the field for Ferrari. A real old school powerhouse performance. She could’ve contended in an alternate universe. But I’m still hoping Holdovers takes Actor, Supporting Actress, and Screenplay. All would be my picks in their respective fields.