those pop vote margin figures you see floating around are based largely on old math/maps.

its kinda flying under the radar but dems actually *lost* the house popular vote by about 1% but picked up a net 6 seats anyway. because of suburb pickups in normally gop areas. and we have seen this trend accelerate after the election.

so the map is being rapidly reshaped to the point where that estimated headstart may not apply anymore. some gerrymanders may turn into dummymanders and backfire on the gop.