Democrats were celebrating being up 10 about 2 months ago. Now they are down to the GOP for the first time in a while.
Trump has 47% approval

Memos, Russia, wife beating staffers, porn star payments. None of that matters in terms of election prospects. Normal people aren't following the news like that to care

Tax cuts were a shot of adrenaline to Republicans and Trump. They are selling them hard and folks are receptive.
If Democrats don't get their own spin on the cuts to take hold quick, they are in big trouble

Drop the memos stuff. Don't take the bait on Trump's lawyer's porn star payment. Be laser focused on the consequences of the tax cuts and only that.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/14/trump-polling-democrats-republicans-407315

these fools don’t even care about the economy. That shit could tank tomorrow and they would blame Obama.

All they care about is winning over a Dem.

You can’t tell them a tax cut doesn’t help them in the long run. That’s not how this works

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/373735-dems-flip-seat-in-florida-state-special-election

Democrats on Tuesday won yet another special election for a state legislative seat once held by a Republican, this time in a battleground seat south of Tampa, Fla.


http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/373730-dems-vie-to-win-back-blue-collar-voters-in-pivotal-pa-race



President Trump carried the Pittsburgh-area 18th District by 20 percentage points in 2016, suggesting a tough fight for Democrats. But now Democrat Conor Lamb has an outside chance at winning March 13 special election, thanks to growing energy on the left and a lack of GOP enthusiasm for Republican state Rep. Rick Saccone.

Now that they won I don’t think we will see the same enthusiasm until the next Presidential election and that’s only if Hilldawg runs again.

Anyone else besides Michelle Obama should win in 2020.

They got tired of taking those L's

this narrative that they have been constantly losing elections is false. its based purely on like 3 or 4 early high profile elections in deep red districts. the overall picture tells a different tale.

and the GOP had to spend heavily to secure seats that should have been cake walks

spending massive cash and gotta bring in the big guns to campaign just to save these seats.

in this upcoming pa special election...repubs are outspending dems like 17 to 1 and trump is about to campaign there for a 2nd time just to save a seat that trump won by 20 pts and tim murphy ran unopposed the last 2 election cycles. and repubs still might lose.

Perfect rust belt town with Steel Mills that are closed.

I'm sure these folks will eat it up though even though most of them are white, poor and on welfare.

which happens when you over promise and under deliver.

as much as trump brags about how well the economy is doing and how business are 'roaring back' into america...shit hasnt changed one bit in these areas.

in fact...theyve seen even more layoffs and foreign steel imports have increased

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/22/business/economy/trump-steel-industry-layoffs.html
https://thinkprogress.org/trump-has-made-life-worse-for-steelworkers-union-chiefs-say-323c748d12ca/

remember carrier? that indiana company whose jobs trump made a big public spectacle about saving? theyve lost like 1000 jobs since then and those employees are pissed at trump now lol.

There is a reason why Trump on a daily basis has been saying "The economy is strong. Unemployment is at record lows..."

Doesn't matter what's actually happening on the ground. People feel like things are better all around and that Trump is at least partially responsible


https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/charts/2017/12/1513602186_liesman1.jpg

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/18/economic-optimism-soaring-helping-trump-cnbc-survey.html

maybe in terms of answering surveys...but not necessarily in terms of voting.

this is essentially the same economy as obamas right?

but while the economy was doing well overall during obamas last term...it wasnt doing well in those rust belt and rural towns. so even tho the reality was a robust economy...that wasnt *their* reality. and that is why they desperately attached to trump...who talked about how disastrous the economy was for them and spoke to their pain.

clinton won the districts that had the most economic growth. trump won the districts that had the least. this is why.

well guess what? trump is doing the exact opposite now. he is bragging about how booming the economy is but shit hasnt changed in those 'economically anxious' areas his message resonated in. in fact...theyve gotten worse in many cases (factories and coal plants closing). this has a real effect on voters.

in all of these elections...rural turnout has relatively been *down* among voting groups (compared to trumps election). they are already feeling let down by trump/repubs.

election results tell the ultimate tale fam. predictive analysis based on surveys and polls is cool. but nothing supersedes the real behavior of real people voicing their real opinion via a real vote.

and how the voters felt a year later.

They admitted he didn’t deliver but still sounded like they were in his corner. I definitely think some were saving face tho. Who wants to admit they were duped by a con man?

As long as it isn’t Hilldawg I think it’s a wrap from Trump in 2020.

and going on these caucasoid safaris to ghost towns and small diners just to find them is warping our sense of reality lol.

or is that just sports.

and we know how those turned out.

when you win...it increases enthusiasm. which increases fundraising and drives more people to run as candidates. which increases chances of winning. which increases enthusiasm. which increases...

Talking about Doug Jones and VA is akin to Trump talking about his victory in Pennsylvania

A lot has happened between Bama and now

like dems won a special election in a wisconsin district that trump won by 17 pts...by an almost 30 pt swing lol.

even scott walker was like hold the fuck up lol
https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/953483235509571584

^^^^^.....Understands the value of voter excitement.....

The economy is moot for Trump if the GOP base is not more charged up than the Democratic base.....Right now Dem candidates statewide are winning in places they have NEVER won....And when they (Dems) do lose they are closing 15 to 25 point gaps and making it very close in heavily Republican strongholds....

Also, it doesn't help that voters in various polls still credit Obama for our improving economy over 45. But really, it's all about who is more energized is less about Trump's improving numbers (which r still skinny as fuck...)....Right now The Left wants blood....

Oh yeah...Trump just added gasoline to the fire with his lack of commentary on the domestic abuse of three WHITE women by White House official Rob Porter...It's as if 45's crew are oblivious to all of the women who have been winning statewide elections and the Me Too movement....

Political malpractice....

which is why dems, indies, and repub defectors are so fired up to vote against trump and the republican party.

the prevailing takeaway in the 2016 election aftermath was that polls dont mean shit after seeing the surprising result of the election.

which makes it weird that folks are now basing their reasoning on polls in spite of actual recent election results lol.

They got the overall national picture almost spot on. Which is what these polls are doing as well.

It's when you use polls at the state and local level that things start to fall apart

>
>the prevailing takeaway in the 2016 election aftermath was
>that polls dont mean shit after seeing the surprising result
>of the election.
>
>which makes it weird that folks are now basing their reasoning
>on polls in spite of actual recent election results lol.

Yes, it's clear that Democrats have been winning.
But can they keep it up until the big show is the question.

Republicans haven't had anything to hang their hat on until recently. Being able to point to tangible things like tax cuts and a good economy (no matter how deserving of the credit they are) makes a huge difference in perception

dem candidates are outraising gop incumbents like crazy.
https://www.vox.com/2018/2/6/16973928/house-democrats-republicans-2018-midterms-fundraising
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/ratings-changes-21-districts

the 2 dem congressional campaign committees (dccc/dlcc) have outraised their gop counterparts (nrcc/nrsc) by over $30 mil combined. the dem governors association is outraising the gop one handily too.

even beto orourke outraised tea party darling ted cruz last quarter...while accepting zero pac money.

repubs cant even field any quality challengers to vulnerable dem senators in a lot of states that trump won like ohio, north dakota, tennessee, etc. even claire mccaskell...who was thought to be vulnerable...is outraising her next best challenger by like a 2:1 margin. repubs are even begging corker not to retire now so they wont lose the senate seat in tennessee.

the amount of republicans in congress retiring or not seeking re-election is already at a record number, including 9 committee chairmen! (which means they dont expect to be in the majority next year). even trey gowdy is headed for the hills.

repubs are getting beat up and down the ballot at every level of government by wide swing margins in elections dating back through last year. and they have to spend like crazy and bring in outside help just to hold on to safe red seats they have held for decades.

repub party identification is down almost 10% since right before the 2016 election. and women are leaving the party at an alarming rate...creating an overall trump approval gender gap of around 20pts (obama was around 6).

those are *tangible* indicators of the current environment and what even repubs expect to happen in november.

aside from media narrative and poll numbers...where are you seeing signs of this momentum for republicans?

Even Schumer sees it

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/12/chuck-schumer-democrats-cant-just-run-against-trump-in-2018-midterms.html

"You cannot just run against Donald Trump," Schumer said, speaking next to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell at an event at the University of Louisville. "And it is the job of we Democrats to put together a strong, cohesive, economic group of proposals aimed at the middle class and those struggling to get there."

Democrats need to promote policies like cutting the costs of student loans, increasing access to rural broadband and boosting the availability of child care, he argued. Schumer added that his party needs to "focus like a laser" on economic issues.

the whole 'dems need a unified message' is some rule of thumb that people have latched on to but isnt really based on anything.

when dems had a wave election 2006...what was the party message? nothing really. anti-bush sentiment drove voters.

when repubs had a wave election in 2010...what was the party message? nothing really. anti-obama sentiment drove voters.

and anti-trump sentiment is gonna drive voters in the 2018 midterm elections. it has already driven the historical results/turnouts we have seen in elections thus far. and dems were typically the voter base that tended to stay home in these type of elections.

and saying dems are running on *just* anti-trump shit is being obtuse or willfully dismissive. dems are running on real issues like education, healthcare, gun control, worker protections, climate change, etc. meanwhile repubs are running on nancy pelosi, ms-13, transgender bathrooms, and swamp draining lol.

Real talk, you been posting real suspect lately.

Is this some reverse psychology posting?

Damn near everything you are posting is the exact opposite of what’s happening.

I'm just calling it how I see it.

I make an effort to avoid the WaPo, NYTimes, CNN bubble. Even though I am decidedly liberal, I watch Fox News from time to time. I'm friends with quite a few conservative/independents on FB. I browse conservative leaning forums.
I want to get a picture of what the other side thinks.

While people here and else were keke-ing about Paul Ryan's gaffe about the teacher getting a Costco membership, there are actual people out there genuinely excited about getting an additional $1000 this year.
There are people that get excited when they hear about those bonuses, even though when you dig they are not what they seem to be.
The GOP's message on tax cuts and the economy is resonating IMO, despite what we think the truth really is.


So while you say I'm talking about the opposite of what's happening, maybe it's because we are seeing completely different things?


>Real talk, you been posting real suspect lately.
>
>Is this some reverse psychology posting?
>
>Damn near everything you are posting is the exact opposite of
>what’s happening.

but I think that early momentum is gone.

Folks are definitely happy about a little extra cash but I think it’s hollow. They know shit ain’t cute and all these folks being kicked out the WH a week after signing on is a bad look.


I truly believe it’s going to be a bloodbath in November.

He going hard for Trump and Republicans.

https://media.giphy.com/media/3o6YglDndxKdCNw7q8/giphy.gif

Where? lol

26 Reeq listed 5 points and you answered with a Schumer quote.

By quoting what Schumer thinks the Democrats should be doing in terms of messaging, I am in the tank for the GOP.

Again:
https://media.giphy.com/media/3o6YglDndxKdCNw7q8/giphy.gif

>26 Reeq listed 5 points and you answered with a Schumer
>quote.

When Schumer waved off the Dems celebrating as the Obamacare repeal bill failed, it proved Republicans had the momentum on repealing Obamacare.

I only responded to the part I disagreed with. The rest I agree with (there's really nothing to refute. It's just facts).

This referee thought I should have responded better. So I'm sorry.

Sincerely,

An operative of the GOP

Bannon is a genius with a diabolical plan that's working.


Republicans have the momentum

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/373862-trump-i-am-totally-opposed-to-domestic-violence

The White House had also come under mounting pressure from Republicans in Congress to speak out about the issue of domestic violence.

“Clearly we should all be condemning domestic violence,” Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) told reporters on Wednesday.

“And if a person who commits domestic violence gets in the government, then there is a breakdown in the vetting system and that breakdown needs to be addressed.”

Ryan is wasting his time the 9 to 5 butcher doesn't care.

>Yes, it's clear that Democrats have been winning.
>But can they keep it up until the big show is the question.
>

Same question for the Republican momentum you mentioned. Will it last ?

>Republicans haven't had anything to hang their hat on until
>recently. Being able to point to tangible things like tax cuts
>and a good economy (no matter how deserving of the credit they
>are) makes a huge difference in perception

An extra 1.50 or 36.00 meh

Same as the memo business.

As some person getting off work at the meat processing plant about either one and I bet you get shoulder shrugs 70 percent of the time

Republicans can't afford to lose any of those. Everyday his comments are on the front page it's hurting them.

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/373844-pence-white-house-could-have-better-handled-porter-situation

https://twitter.com/Morning_Joe/status/963010628020527105

with college educated white women
https://twitter.com/Morning_Joe/status/963024552547815424

i have no idea why you think none of this matters or why you think every voter in america is some white male with a blue collar job that doesnt watch news lol.

I never implied anything about white males. But I think the second part (blue collar job that doesn't watch news (much)) is true about most voters.

>
>i have no idea why you think none of this matters or why you
>think every voter in america is some white male with a blue
>collar job that doesnt watch news lol.

...reason #459549845165 his election was 99.454% tied to race

trump is ticking up in polls and his approval with republicans is sky high...but republican party affiliation is at an all time low.

http://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

theres a 10 pt gap (22-32) btwn repubs and dems...which is unheard of. when independents are asked if they lean repub or dem...they lean dem by a 15 pt margin!

but polls are polls and not entirely predictive. the real measure is elections.

last night in a special election in florida...dems flipped *another* seat that trump had won by 6 pts in 2016. dems won by 8 for a 14 pt swing. it was a solid red district that has voted republican for prez and downballot for decades. repubs held a significant advantage in voter registration and repubs even turned out to vote around 7% higher than dems. so in order for them dem to win...a significant number of repubs would have had to defect and independents would have had to lean significantly dem. all of that is in line with the gallup party affiliation numbers and in direct contrast to these trump approval numbers and generic ballot numbers.

and these types of dem swings/flips in special elections have been going on all year at a wider margin than even last year.

my guess is that the polling methodology for approval and generic ballot are not accurately accounting for the amount of people who are de-registering from the republican party whenever they extrapolate party data to compensate for any oversampling. so they are basing their estimates on a more concentrated (but ultimately smaller) pool of repub voters.

ie- if trumps approval with people who currently and previously identified as repub is really like 75% but 5% of those repubs claim independent now...then his approval among current repubs who still identify with the party is gonna look like the 80%s now.

I've never been polled or knew of anyone. I think poll numbers don't mean shit these days.

older voters (repubs) are more likely to answer landline calls and younger dem voters are harder to reach (cell phones, aversion to voice contact instead of text, etc). plus blacks and latinos heavily trend dem and they aint tryna answer no phone calls from a number they dont recognize lol.

a few pollsters i follow on twitter have thrown this theory out there to account for dems consistently overperforming the polling in recent elections.

people talk about the hidden/ashamed trump vote. but they really might be missing the hidden dem/millenial/minority vote.

im guessing those are part of polls

lotta 45 voters didn't want to come out and say they were voting for him, the so-called "undecideds"
They were voting for him all along, just didn't want to get labeled as racist/sexist so they shut up or lied about it

white voters voted for trump in no greater numbers than romney.

I know for a fact that my co-workers who went for 45 just STFU and let us believe what we wanted to believe

at the same percentage they voted for the last republican candidate.

and trump got almost 3 million less votes than clinton.

there was no hidden trump vote fam lol.

clinton lost by underperforming in a few key areas. trump didnt win by overperforming with some surprise clandestine voter army lol.

She blew it!!

She had it in the bag and missed the layup.

Hilldawg got lazy IMO.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byxeOG_pZ1o

Politico LOVES writing breathless stories about statistical outliers.

The same day Ipsos found Democrats with an 8-pt lead on the generic ballot. And just before, PPP also gave Dems an 8-pt lead.

FiveThirtyEight adjusts the PPP result to a 7-point lead because they've been slightly too favorable to Democrats in the past, but by the same token, Morning Consult has been very favorable to Republicans, so FiveThirtyEight actually adjusts their result to a +3 lead for Dems.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

As indicated by the graph. Dems we're at their peak in December (50-37). And it's been downhill ever since.

This is what I mean by momentum. What is causing the gap to be narrowed. In my opinion it is economics and economic/tax cut messaging

Of course, one can't just assume trend will continue for no reason. (As a physicist, I recoil at the idea of political 'momentum.' There's something like it, but it's much more complex than that.) Trends can change rapidly.

That said, while a trend can change for the better, it's also possible for it to change for the worse. People tend to forget that side.

Like you (I gather), I'm concerned that a kind of 'scandal fatigue' is setting in, that events that have held Trump's ratings down thus far just start to settle into the background.

On the other hand, I'm also a little worried that Dems might do TOO well in the midterms, gain big power in the house, then overstep their mandate and make Trump more popular in 2020 (like the GOP did with the Clinton impeachment, though the timing was different).

I actually think the ideal outcome for removing Trump from office would be for Dems to come CLOSE to taking the house but not quite getting there in 2018. For that to play out we'd NEED the Dem lead in generics to shrink from where it is now. But I'm obviously overthinking it.

along with party tightening/concentration i mentioned in reply #8.

republicans hadnt passed any major legislation til the tax cuts. republican voters were weary of congressional republicans ability to come together and do anything. there was also a lot of republican in-fighting in the 1st year. something that drove trump approval among repubs into the mid 70s. this is why there was such a large generic ballot gap.

the rebound is mostly due to congressional repubs and trump unifying and repub voters reacting to that.

lol these fuckers

https://gop.com/rate-trump-job-performance/

Getting $30 more in a 2week paycheck seems like a win - until you realize the owner of the company is getting $30,000 more - and that when you turn 65 you can't retire and when you get sick there's no medicare funds to help.

The memos was largely on the MSM stupidity

The shutdowns were not framed well and ultimately looked like dems caved instead of negotiated/worked a deal on behalf of their constituents



But overall, the gop march off the cliff continues.

Kelly did a punk 'ill resign if u ask' but the WH is still a circus

when something happens...repubs go silent and then huddle up to get their gameplan on point. then they fan out to cable news, the sunday shows, etc with consistent talking points. sunday show interviews are usually predominated by gop talking heads.

'workhorse not showhorse' was a cutesy/campy slogan for hillary clinton the campaign tried to weave in the election discourse. but it really was accurate and could be applied to democrats in general. theyre much more concerned with spending time crafting actual policy and remedying societal ills with acute legislative prescriptions.
repubs are more concerned with getting elected by rallying their voters through cultural flashpoints and maintaining power via narrative control.

Long winded and shit. Voters want an elevator pitch. Hell, it’s all they can handle.

So all that “go to my website to see my 40 point plan” shut doesn’t work. You got the mic, it’s hot... speak on it.

Dems should be screaming about how these tax cuts are temporary for the middle class.

*Eyes roll out of my fucking head.*

Chuck Schumer, SUPERGENIUS

>Be laser focused on the consequences of the
>tax cuts and only that.

This extremely good idea requires making a moral argument about our collective responsibilities to each other. But it hasn't been part of the mainstream Democrat toolbox in a long time.

So Trump-and-Putin-sitting-in-a-tree is the argument we get. And maybe an occasional mention of the deficit because the only language Democrats understand is pointing out hypocrisy. But nobody cares about the deficit or hypocrisy.

I always thought it would be a really good idea for baseball teams to make a group of pitchers that just didn't have any chance of panning out. Guys who just don't profile to crack even a high-minors rotation, and explain to them that they were absolutely never going to make it to the major leagues unless they try something incredibly weird, so weird it'd be too risky for a pitcher who actually had potential. These guys could try to become, like, left-handed sidearm knuckleballers or learn to throw a screwball since we decided that pitch just shreds shoulders even before we cared about protecting shoulders. Basically, just see if these guys could shoot the moon* because they're useless otherwise and it's only upside.

That's the Russia investigation. Some otherwise useless Democrats throwing sidearm knuckleballs because the likelihood of them effectively making a strong case that the tax cuts will harm the vast majority of Americans and that the Democrats have an alternate vision that will help people is pretty much zero.

*I have played hearts only once so I have no idea if I'm using this expression correctly

<<
On top of that: Several top Hill Democrats told me they worry too many of their colleagues think they can flip the House just by bashing Trump and talking about Russia. If the focus groups at the retreat showed them anything, it’s that that won’t be enough.
<<


https://www.axios.com/midterm-migraines-for-the-democrats-1518994813-bff84c4c-4e3c-4f46-a63b-84db98847614.html

Democrats have more midterm anxiety than you might think, given most pundits are confidently predicting Republicans will lose the House.

Two sources with direct knowledge tell me that at the recent Democratic Senate retreat at Mount Vernon, they invited a focus group of voters to discuss the issues they care about and the political landscape.

What the voters kept saying: "Republicans have the wrong agenda; Democrats have no agenda."

A Senate aide told me leadership is acutely aware of this problem, and hopes immigration will fill their agenda gap. Another top Senate aide, however, told me their messaging will highlight a broader set of issues, including pensions, opioid funding, child care, and student loans. They will boast that they moved the ball forward on these issues with the budget deal.

Their toughest challenge: keeping this message from being totally drowned out by coverage of the President’s alleged affairs, the Russia probe, the Robert Porter domestic violence cover-up, and other wild stories. Democrats are aware that cable news producers would much rather air segments on Stormy Daniels than pension reform.

By the way: Hillary Clinton had this problem too. Her campaign staff always bemoaned the fact that the national media showed infinitely more interest in Trump’s JFK conspiracy theories than her white papers on Alzheimer’s.

On top of that: Several top Hill Democrats told me they worry too many of their colleagues think they can flip the House just by bashing Trump and talking about Russia. If the focus groups at the retreat showed them anything, it’s that that won’t be enough.

you just have to tailor good candidates to their districts/states based on the issues that prevail there.

they said doug jones and ralph northam were uninspiring and bad at messaging. they were on the better side of important issues tho (which most dems are).

no dems even run primarily on trump/russia anyway...so im not sure why people keep bringing that up lol. most dems are running against specific gop incumbents and their campaigns are focused there (anti-trump sentiment is more of an undercurrent among the voters).

and after crawling his way up to an approval rating of 40...trump has already fallen down to 37 a week later.

http://news.gallup.com/poll/203207/trump-job-approval-weekly.aspx

obama was more popular than trump in 2010 but still underwater. repubs had no message. shit the tea party ran *against* their own national party just as much they did against dems. and repubs still went on to massive wins because angry voters were motivated to take action. with the resistance, plus #metoo, plus repub defections, plus gun control folks now...theres just way too much energy on the ground for dems. its a cultural shift that transcends typical politics.

midterms are pretty much a direct response to the current presidents popularity. which is why most repub candidates are trying to keep trump the hell away from their campaign...even in states/districts trump won big in.

with that said...dems are ceding a lot of territory on tax cuts. repubs are pumping in a shitload of money and controlling the narrative (with help from pr campaigns from some of the largest corporations playing up their bonuses and wage increases). dems are having a hard time countering that narrative. but they should have constantly been hammering/highlighting all of the republicans who personally benefited from the law they passed to enrich themselves. dems should have made the tax bill the standard bearer for typical washington insider self dealing.

even still...the majority of people still believe the tax cuts mostly benefit the rich (even repubs in swing states like pa). and most credible analysts/strategists think things like the tax cuts and the recent shutdowns wont even be on the radar come november.

Largely because of messaging. Someone tells you it's good over and over and over again. Sooner or later you're going to start believing them.

I think tax cuts are going to be one of the main things on people's heads come November. Increase someone's take home pay by $1200, they are definitely gonna remember. Pointing out that rich people got more isn't going to upset too many people as long as they get theirs

<<
Mr. Cohen cautioned that the bill still was not particularly popular, and opposition among Democrats remained strong. Still, support has grown even among Democrats, from 8 percent just before the bill passed in December to 19 percent this month. For Democrats, Mr. Cohen said, running on opposition to the bill has become more of a political gamble.

“It’s less of a sure bet than it seemed in December,” he said. “This isn’t a problem yet for Democrats, but the movement isn’t a positive one.”
<<


https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/02/19/business/economy/tax-overhaul-survey.html

the obama stimulus had around a 60+ approval with great press from the auto industry comeback. the large majority of americans polled thought his actions were great for the economy. folks got tax cuts *and* an immediate set of new/increased tax deductions.

still got wiped out in the midterms lol. cuz the away team came in fired up more than the home team. the same thing will happen here.

the only thing that has really kept republicans relevant in a lot of elections is that the dem base is largely made up of low propensity voters who sit out a lot of elections other than ones in presidential years. that has obviously changed.

Mainly because they didn't sell it

https://www.politico.com/story/2010/04/poll-stimulus-didnt-help-036544

Nearly two-thirds of Americans do not believe the $787 billion stimulus package the president passed last year has helped create jobs, according to a new Pew Research Center poll.

Sixty-two percent of those polled said the stimulus hasn’t contributed to job creation, while 33 percent said the package has.

with a remedial map that favors dems a lot more than the old map.

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/pennsylvania-gerrymandering-supreme-court-map-congressional-districts-2018-elections-20180219.html

dems could easily pick up 4 additional seats strictly based on new lines alone and gain 1/6 of the seats they need for a house majority from a state that was supposed to be heavily tilted against them in 2018.

but im glad national dems are sweating because thatll keep them focused.

Like hell they're going to just roll over and accept that lol.

Are they already passed the 'impeach the judges' phase?

the only reason they even have enough votes for impeachment is because of gerrymandering lol.

i get the sense that the impeachment talk wasnt taken that seriously tho. pa still has some charlie dent type moderate repubs in the legislature that wouldnt be on board with all of that.

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/374777-dem-wins-ky-state-house-seat-in-district-trump-won-by-49-points

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/375880-dem-wins-new-hampshire-seat-in-trump-district

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/13/politics/pennsylvania-special-election-lamb-saccone/index.html



Anti-gentrification, cheap alcohol & trying to look pretty in our twilight posting years (c) Big Reg
http://Tupreme.com

www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

his brand is toxic, and I think repubs running in Nov are fucked either way. embracing him wont work, but neither will trying to distance themselves.

When Obama's numbers were down in 2014, just about all Dem candidates who tried to separate themselves from Obama lost.

“I won this district by 20 points.. we are counting on you, don’t screw it up”

He knows it’s all falling down around him. These midterms are going to be ugly

Anti-gentrification, cheap alcohol & trying to look pretty in our twilight posting years (c) Big Reg
http://Tupreme.com

https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/26/politics/pennsylvania-house-race-conor-lamb-nancy-pelosi/index.html

it wasnt so much about distancing himself from pelosi personally as much it was about distancing himself from the national party.

national party leaders are detested in many areas by voters in both parties. a lot of republicans literally win elections just by saying theyre gonna go to washington and fuck shit up for mcconnell and ryan and the rest of the swamp.

lamb was a much lighter touch on that dynamic.

i think we concentrate too much power in the hands of the majority and minority leaders as it is. part of the reason for the decrease in bipartisanship. but thats another post.

This is what Dems need to do. You have to connect with people in your district.

Blue Dog democrat.

See Obama Healthcare
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=8174279&page=1

or

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/14/politics/banking-bill-vote-mike-crapo/index.html

and

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/378353-rand-paul-to-oppose-pompeo-haspel

by going as left as possible in every race in every district.

'progressives' have a hard time winning races even in blue states. i have no idea why people think thats a recipe for success nationwide.

>by going as left as possible in every race in every
>district.
>
>'progressives' have a hard time winning races even in blue
>states. i have no idea why people think thats a recipe for
>success nationwide.


This is not a hard left.

http://www.al.com/opinion/index.ssf/2018/03/democrats_call_on_doug_jones_t.html

all repubs voted for it.

16 dems voted for it. 33 dems/indies voted against it.

were all of those 33 dems/indies 'progressives'? exactly.

some of those 16 senators that voted for that bill also stopped republicans from ripping healthcare away from people wholesale. they also prevent repubs from bringing extreme right wing policies to the senate floor just by posing the threat of a filibuster.

politics isnt all or nothing.

bernie sanders voted against russia sanctions, mandatory labeling standards for gmo foods, capping interest rates on federal student loans, and potentially holding gun makers liable for mass shootings. should people stop voting for him too?

>all repubs voted for it.
>

yeah that's what repubs do

>16 dems voted for it. 33 dems/indies voted against it.
>

and one who just got elected, co-sponsed it and ignored those who helped get him elected when he voted for it.

>were all of those 33 dems/indies 'progressives'? exactly.
>

Where id I say anything about progressives ?

>some of those 16 senators that voted for that bill also
>stopped republicans from ripping healthcare away from people
>wholesale. they also prevent repubs from bringing extreme
>right wing policies to the senate floor just by posing the
>threat of a filibuster.
>

Oh well that makes it ok. Trump stopped the Broadcom Ltd's proposed takeover of Qualcomm I guess he's a good President after all.

>politics isnt all or nothing.
>

It's not making excuses and justifying politicians who go against the people that voted for them.

>bernie sanders voted against russia sanctions, mandatory
>labeling standards for gmo foods, capping interest rates on
>federal student loans, and potentially holding gun makers
>liable for mass shootings. should people stop voting for him
>too?

Yes they should. If he co-sponsors a bill that exempts banks that extend 500 or fewer mortgages a year from reporting home loan data to federal regulators and broadens the definition of qualified mortgages. People should stop voting for him.

https://theintercept.com/2018/03/14/sen-doug-joness-grassroots-supporters-ask-him-to-withdraw-support-of-bank-deregulation-bill/

" Bipartisanship just for the sake of bipartisanship is a recipe for disaster. As Democrats, we must fight for our values and stand our ground against those who oppose our values.


Please, Senator Jones, remove your name from the list of cosponsors of this bill. Remember, the bankers and the financial sector are not the people who voted you into office. It was the middle class workers of Alabama, the college students who want relief from the burden of student debt, the families who are trying to make ends meet paycheck to paycheck, the teachers who are not paid enough for their work, and African Americans, most notably, African American women. These are the groups that you should be fighting for."

that doesnt sound very republican to me.

broad brushing politicians based on a few votes only works with dorm room pundits.

bernie sanders voted against reversing the dickey amendment...effectively preventing the cdc from researching gun violence and providing data for sensible gun control legislation. he also voted against a 3 day mandatory waiting period for firearms sales. is he a republican?

>that doesnt sound very republican to me.
>

Ok time to test that

>broad brushing politicians based on a few votes only works
>with dorm room pundits.
>

You just used a vote to say he doesn't sound republican to you up above. Straw man Bernie/progressive arguments never works anywhere.

>bernie sanders voted against reversing the dickey
>amendment...effectively preventing the cdc from researching
>gun violence and providing data for sensible gun control
>legislation. he also voted against a 3 day mandatory waiting
>period for firearms sales. is he a republican?

No he's independent we are(well I'm trying) talking about blue dog democrats.

His victory speech made a really big deal out of protecting universal social programs and said nice things about unions, which seems to me like a move away from recent centrist decisions to:

a)not mention them at all
b)pretend like means-testing isn't creepy

It's all just talk, and the kind of frenzied I-just-got-elected talk, no less. But Jones et al. never really even seemed to bother with this. It feels like we're seeing some genuinely talented political opportunists (Gillibrand and Booker come immediately to mind) starting to move leftward a little bit. I don't trust their principles, but I really trust their ability to read the room.

Here's a clip of his victory speech: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_ZyLppT25g&app=desktop

I thought Mike Konczal's point about this was encouraging:

Mike Konczal
‏
Verified account

@rortybomb
12h12 hours ago

At 38 I’m of an age where when I hear a Democrat saying “Social Security and Medicare are great” I instinctively flinch, waiting for the inevitable “....BUT” to follow it demanding Tough Solutions and Grand Bargains.

Amazing if we got to where universal and bold is celebrated.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/why-democrats-should-worry-about-conor-lambs-victory-w517866

in the future and it's not good. "The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is pursuing a centrist strategy for winning in the fall, working in close coordination with the Blue Dog Coalition."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-17/democrats-see-conservative-blue-dogs-as-key-to-winning-house

>His victory speech made a really big deal out of protecting
>universal social programs and said nice things about unions,
>which seems to me like a move away from recent centrist
>decisions to:
>

Hopefully he stays true to the words he spoke in that speech. This doesn't look good

"If Lamb made anything clear in his campaign, it's that he most certainly will vote with Trump on occasion. On guns, for one thing: Lamb opposes a ban on assault weapons, such as the AR-15 he was shown firing in one of his campaign ads. He supports the president's trade policies, too including the new tariffs. He pooh-poohs single-payer healthcare. He's as "pro-military" as a person could be. (He is also "personally opposed" to abortion, though he says it should be legal.)

Lamb, for all his fresh-faced charm, ran and won as a Trump Democrat – a flashback to the "Republican Lite" candidacies the Democrats specialized in during the Clinton '90s and '00s. He was so reluctant to criticize the president that NBC reporter Kacie Hunt made it her mission on Tuesday to ask him about Trump and try to extract something. Lamb wouldn't rise to the bait:

Conor Lamb has no comment on whether President Trump is a stable commander in chief based on today's events.

— Kasie Hunt (@kasie) March 13, 2018"


>a)not mention them at all
>b)pretend like means-testing isn't creepy
>
>It's all just talk, and the kind of frenzied
>I-just-got-elected talk, no less. But Jones et al. never
>really even seemed to bother with this. It feels like we're
>seeing some genuinely talented political opportunists
>(Gillibrand and Booker come immediately to mind) starting to
>move leftward a little bit. I don't trust their principles,
>but I really trust their ability to read the room.
>

Well they have to start with baby steps somewhere. I'll take Booker over the other opportunists.

>Here's a clip of his victory speech:
>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_ZyLppT25g&app=desktop
>
>I thought Mike Konczal's point about this was encouraging:
>
>Mike Konczal
>‏
>Verified account
>
>@rortybomb
> 12h12 hours ago
>
>At 38 I’m of an age where when I hear a Democrat saying
>“Social Security and Medicare are great” I instinctively
>flinch, waiting for the inevitable “....BUT” to follow it
>demanding Tough Solutions and Grand Bargains.
>
>Amazing if we got to where universal and bold is celebrated.

True

Suppose that's what I get for getting barely excited about a victory speech. Thanks for the link - and I'll downgrade my expectations to "keep my fingers crossed, I guess."

i know mad people who cant wait to get in this fight and start throwing some punches (votes).

my family got a midterms facebook group and them lazy niggas never cared about politics.

repubs losing districts that are damn near 100% white. black people bout to show up and show out in their elections. young people bout to blossom right before our very eyes. this shit bout to be glorious.

cause voters don’t give a damn about a few dollars in their pocket when corporations and the 1% are getting billions

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-election-republicans-20180314-story.html

It’s gonna be ugly in November.

Sorry pimp but you totally missed with your prediction.

All I said was that democrats gotta get a message to push back against the republican tax plan. For the most part, republicans were dictating the message while democrats were flat footed.

Lamb in PA pretty much ran his campaign like I was saying in the OP. It wasn't an anti-Trump campaign. There was no Russia talk. There was no call for impeachment. Almost no mentions of Trump at all.

Dude talked about stuff that resonates with his people. The economy and labor issues.

On tax cuts (perfect answer. Every democrat needs to memorize this script): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ow3kEGJw9OQ

On medicare/social security: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4syLKd2Rts

Democrats can't just sit back and hope for an anti-trump wave to carry them to victory. They have to work at it and get their communication game right.

www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

http://i.imgur.com/c7c8aDx.jpg

It was more like a 5 hour energy boost to repubs.

It gives them something concrete to talk about. Whether it's enough to save their jobs, we'll have to wait and see.
But they would have definitely have been much worse off if they had to run on repeal and replace Obamacare again.

Admittedly, I was responding to poll numbers in Feb that have now changed. And the will continue to fluctuate from now until November. But a handful of special election results haven't changed my overall argument.

Running against Trump isn't going to get wins. And I think Republicans are starting to learn that running with Trump isn't the path to victory that they thought it would be either.

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/380045-wisconsin-gop-will-tinker-with-election-laws-rather-than-follow-court

Wisconsin GOP will tinker with election laws rather than follow court order
BY REID WILSON - 03/23/18 08:21 PM EDT

Wisconsin Republicans signaled Friday that they will hold a special election to change election law rather than facing special elections in two heavily Republican legislative districts.

On Thursday, Dane County Circuit Judge Josann Reynolds ordered Gov. Scott Walker (R) to call special elections in two legislative districts that have been vacant for months.

Walker's attorneys had argued state election law did not require him to fill the seats, because they were made vacant during an off year. The legislators who occupied both seats quit to take jobs in Walker's administration.

But the judge rejected those arguments, ruling in favor of voters from both districts and the National Democratic Redistricting Trust, a group led by former Attorney General Eric Holder, who argued that Walker's refusal to call special elections denied voters their right to representation in Madison.

Reynolds, who was appointed to the bench by Walker, ordered the governor to declare vacancies next week, thus setting up special elections that would be held later this spring or summer.

But in a joint statement released Friday, Wisconsin Assembly Speaker Robin Vos (R) and state Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald (R) said they would ask Walker to call the legislature back into session in order to change Wisconsin's special election law.

"After consulting with and others, we have decided it's best to move forward on an extraordinary session in order to clean up the statute on special elections and ensure that it aligns with the Military and Overseas Voter Empowerment Act," Vos and Fitzgerald said.

"It's clear that little thought was given to the impact of the special elections ruling," they went on. "In essence, there will be two elections occurring simultaneously for the two offices. It will undoubtedly lead to voter confusion and electoral chaos. Also, holding the special elections after the conclusion of the regular session is a waste of taxpayer dollars and local government resources."

In his own statement, Walker blamed Holder's group for forcing Wisconsin "to waste money on special elections."

"It would be senseless to waste taxpayer money on special elections just weeks before voters go to the polls when the legislature has concluded its business," Walker said. "This is why I support, and will sign, the Senate and Assembly plan to clarify special election law."

Neither the legislative leaders nor Walker addressed costs associated with a special session.

Wisconsin Democrats castigated Walker and the GOP for what they called a singular focus on keeping power, and a disrespect for the judge who ruled against them.

"Gov. Walker and legislative Republicans' sole focus is maintaining their grip on power and once again they are changing the laws to ensure their control," said state Sen. Jennifer Shilling (D), the Democratic minority leader. "They want to undercut our judicial system and deny thousands of Wisconsin families their constitutional right to equal representation. The Republican efforts to prevent court ordered special elections from being held is the height of corruption and desperation."

The special elections -- one in a Senate seat south of Green Bay, one in an Assembly seat north of Madison -- would ordinarily favor Republicans. President Trump won the Senate district by 18 points in 2016, and he won the Assembly district by 14 points.

But Wisconsin Republicans were rattled earlier this year when Democrats won a special election for a rural state Senate seat that Trump had won by 17 points in 2016. In a tweet after that election, Walker said the results should be "a wake up call for Republicans in Wisconsin."

Since President Trump's election, Democrats have netted 17 state legislative seats in special elections, in areas ranging from suburban Seattle to rural Oklahoma, from the Miami-Dade area to rural Missouri.

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/380701-court-rejects-wisconsin-gop-appeal-to-halt-special-elections

Court rejects Wisconsin GOP appeal to halt special elections
BY REID WILSON - 03/28/18 03:46 PM EDT

The Wisconsin Court of Appeals on Wednesday turned down Gov. Scott Walker’s (R) request for a weeklong extension to call two state legislative special elections as Republicans race to change the law.

Walker has avoided calling special elections in two state legislative seats formerly held by Republicans who quit to take jobs in his administration.

Both districts went heavily for President Trump in 2016, but Democrats recently won an equally red district in a special election, worrying Republicans who are intent on maintaining control of the Wisconsin legislature.
Last week, a Dane County judge appointed by Walker ruled the governor had to call special elections to fill those vacancies. Judge Josann Reynolds gave Walker until Thursday to issue a formal call in both districts.

But Walker and state Republicans tried a move that would have rendered Reynolds’s decision moot: Legislative leaders, with Walker’s support, began preparing for a special session to change state election law so they would not have to hold those special elections.

Republicans have said that there is no point in holding new elections in the two districts, one a state Senate seat south of Green Bay and one an Assembly seat north of Madison. The legislature has adjourned for the year, and it is not scheduled to meet again until after November’s elections, when new legislators would be chosen anyway.

Walker said holding the elections were “unnecessary” and a waste of taxpayer money.

Walker asked Reynolds to give him until April 6 to call the elections — effectively giving the legislature time to reconvene and change the rules. Reynolds denied his request. Walker’s office appealed, leading to Wednesday’s ruling.

The Court of Appeals issued a stinging rebuke to Walker, ordering him to follow Reynolds’s initial ruling.

“Representative government and the election of our representatives are never ‘unnecessary,’ never a ‘waste of taxpayer resources,’” the court wrote in turning down Walker’s appeal.

Democrats, who had sued to force Walker to call the special elections, celebrated the ruling and jabbed at the governor for dragging his feet.

“Walker will do nearly anything to prevent voters from having representation,” Democratic attorney Marc Elias, whose firm represented the plaintiffs seeking to force the new elections, said on Twitter.

Walker himself is up for reelection in November. He will face the winner of a jam-packed Democratic primary in which at least 17 candidates are already running. The primary is Aug. 14.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/04/politics/wisconsin-supreme-court-democrats-win/index.html


Anti-gentrification, cheap alcohol & trying to look pretty in our twilight posting years (c) Big Reg
http://Tupreme.com

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/383855-mcconnell-looks-at-longer-workweeks-for-senate-to-keep-dems-from-campaigning

McConnell looks at longer workweeks for Senate to keep Dems from campaigning: report
BY MAX GREENWOOD - 04/18/18 07:29 PM EDT

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is reportedly looking to hold longer workweeks as a way to keep vulnerable Democratic senators off the campaign trail.

White House legislative director Marc Short told a group of GOP donors this week that McConnell planned to prolong the Senate's workweek in order to reduce the amount of time vulnerable Democrats can spend campaigning, according to The Washington Examiner.

One GOP donor told the Examiner that the tactic is intended to keep Democrats, like Sens. Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.), Joe Manchin (W.Va.) and Claire McCaskill (Mo.), "tied up from campaigning."

Heitkamp, Manchin and McCaskill are among a handful of Senate Democrats facing potentially tough reelection bids in states won by President Trump in 2016.

A spokesman for McConnell noted the leader has said publicly that the Senate will work longer weeks if Democrats continue to slow-walk nominees.

Last week McConnell filed cloture on six nominees and pledged to get them done that same week.

"He wasn't bluffing," the spokesman told The Hill.

McConnell's office declined to comment on whether the tactic was also meant to keep vulnerable Democratic incumbents from returning home early each week to campaign.

Remember when that was a thing 3 years ago? lol

This presidency got me feeling like Matthew McConaughey in Interstellar

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-millennials/democrats-lose-ground-with-millennials-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1I10YH

MANCHESTER, N.H. (Reuters) - Enthusiasm for the Democratic Party is waning among millennials as its candidates head into the crucial midterm congressional elections, according to the Reuters/Ipsos national opinion poll.

The online survey of more than 16,000 registered voters ages 18 to 34 shows their support for Democrats over Republicans for Congress slipped by about 9 percentage points over the past two years, to 46 percent overall. And they increasingly say the Republican Party is a better steward of the economy.

Although nearly two of three young voters polled said they do not like Republican President Donald Trump, their distaste for him does not necessarily extend to all Republicans or translate directly into votes for Democratic congressional candidates.

That presents a potential problem for Democrats who have come to count on millennials as a core constituency - and will need all the loyalty they can get to achieve a net gain of 23 seats to capture control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November.

Young voters represent an opportunity and a risk for both parties, said Donald Green, a political science professor at Columbia University in New York City.

“They’re not as wedded to one party,” Green said. “They’re easier to convince than, say, your 50- or 60-year-olds who don’t really change their minds very often.”

Terry Hood, 34, an African-American who works at a Dollar General store in Baton Rouge, Louisiana and took this year’s poll, said he voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.

But he will consider a Republican for Congress because he believes the party is making it easier to find jobs and he applauds the recent Republican-led tax cut.

“It sounds strange to me to say this about the Republicans, but they’re helping with even the small things,” Hood said in a phone interview. “They’re taking less taxes out of my paycheck. I notice that.”

The Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed young voters during the first three months of this year and the same period in 2016.

Only 28 percent of those polled expressed overt support for Republicans in the 2018 poll - about the same percentage as two years earlier.

But that does not mean the rest will turn out to back Democrats, the survey showed. A growing share of voters between ages 18 and 34 years old said they were undecided, would support a third-party candidate or not vote at all.

The shift away from Democrats was more pronounced among white millennials - who accounted for two-thirds of all votes cast in that age group in 2016.

Democrats losing millennial voters
Millennials’ support for Democratic congressional candidates has declined over the last two years, especially among young white people who made up a majority of the millennial vote in 2016.

Two years ago, young white people favored Democrats over Republicans for Congress by a margin of 47 to 33 percent; that gap vanished by this year, with 39 percent supporting each party.

The shift was especially dramatic among young white men, who two years ago favored Democrats but now say they favor Republicans over Democrats by a margin of 46 to 37 percent, the Reuters/Ipsos poll showed.

Ashley Reed, a white single mother of three in New Hampshire, said a teenage fascination with Democrat Barack Obama led her to support his presidency in 2008. But her politics evolved with her personal life.

Reed, now 28, grew more supportive of gun rights, for instance, while married to her now ex-husband, a U.S. Navy technician. She lost faith in social welfare programs she came to believe were misused. She opposed abortion after having children.

Reed plans to vote for a Republican for Congress this year.

“As I got older, I felt that I could be my own voice,” she said last month in Concord, New Hampshire.

A SWING DISTRICT
Down the road from where Reed lives lies New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, a hiker’s paradise of evergreen thickets and snow-capped lakes where young white voters make up about a quarter of the electorate, compared to 21 percent nationally.

The district’s House seat has changed parties five times in seven election cycles and is up for grabs this year after the Democratic incumbent declined to seek re-election.

New Hampshire’s Democrats have an early edge in voter enthusiasm after a string of victories in races for state legislative seats, said Christopher Galdieri, a politics professor at Saint Anselm College in Manchester.

At a campaign event at the University of New Hampshire in Durham, Mindi Messmer, one of eight Democrats running in the primary election, touted her work as an environmental crusader. But students in the crowd also raised many other issues, notably the local economy.

“People come to school here, and then they move away because they can’t get jobs,” said Acadia Spear, 18, of Portsmouth.

Spear said she would likely vote for a Democrat, but her peers nationally are increasingly looking to Republicans for economic leadership, according to the Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Millennials are almost evenly split this year over the question of which party has a better plan for the economy, with 34 percent picking the Democrats and 32 percent choosing Republicans. That’s a shift from two years ago, when they said Democrats had the better plan by a 12-point margin.

In Manchester, the biggest city in New Hampshire’s 1st District, tattoo artist Ashley Matthias, 31, said she has not decided how she will vote but will support anyone who will make her health insurance more affordable.

As she drilled an eagle in black ink across a client’s shoulder blades, Matthias explained that it is cheaper to pay for her doctor’s visits out-of-pocket than to buy insurance through the government-run Obamacare exchange.

“You just hope nothing happens to you,” she said.

BATTLE FOR THE YOUTH VOTE
After the bruising loss in the presidential election of 2016, the Democratic Party learned it needed to reach young voters on their turf, including on social media and at college campuses, said Elizabeth Renda, who specializes in reaching young voters for the Democratic National Committee.

“Instead of having real conversations with them, we settled for TV ads,” Renda said of the 2016 failure.

Earlier this year, the DNC launched its “IWillVote” initiative, aimed in part at registering millennials to vote. The party also will run ads via social media and text, and it plans to send buses to college campuses on election day to bring students to the polls.

The Democratic National Committee declined to comment on the Reuters poll. Republican National Committee spokeswoman Cassie Smedile said the poll indicates that young voters “like what they’ve seen” from the party in power.

The Republican committee plans to target young voters in part through a pilot program to get out the vote at six college campuses, Smedile said.

In New Hampshire, Eddie Edwards, one of two Republicans running for Congress in the 1st District, said he pitches millennials on ways the government should help college graduates pay off their student loans. He also argues that public secondary schools must better prepare students to find jobs without attending college.

“This is a generation that has much more access to information than others,” he said. “Unless you’re addressing those issues that are important to them, it’s hard to get them involved.”

The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online in English throughout the United States. It gathered about 65,000 responses in all during the first three months of 2018 and 2016, including 16,000 registered voters between the ages of 18 and 34 and nearly 11,000 registered white millennial voters.

The poll has a credibility interval of 1 percentage point, meaning that results may vary by about 1 percentage point in either direction.

For graphic on Democrats losing millenial voters, click: tmsnrt.rs/2I1YafW

Trump's overall approval ratings have been trending up.

Among Democrats, 40% say things in the US are going well, up from 25% who said so in February. Democrats' approval rating for Trump's handling of the economy is up 11 points to 26%.

I'm telling y'all if the economy stays performing at the current level next year, it's gonna be a landslide for Trump.
The porn star/Russia/whatever controversy of the day won't matter one bit

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/07/politics/cnn-poll-trump-steady-right-direction-rises/index.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yh8wmk79XIU

It’s not Trump but he will get credit scores the economy didn’t melt down.

It won’t be enough tho...

It still depends on who the Dems run.

he wont make it that far bro

www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

http://i.imgur.com/c7c8aDx.jpg

38.1% for Repubs vs 36.7% for Dems.
http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TM1212Y17/type/smallest/filters/PD1:1/dates/20180101-20180517/collapsed/true

Just one poll (Reuters however had pretty much the same result two weeks ago) , but the averages have been trending down for Democrats from their 14pt lead back in January to just 4.6% now.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=irpromo


67% say now is a good time to find a quality job. Percentage has increased from pre-Trump across all demographics.

http://news.gallup.com/poll/234587/optimism-availability-good-jobs-hits-new-heights.aspx

>38.1% for Repubs vs 36.7% for Dems.
>http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TM1212Y17/type/smallest/filters/PD1:1/dates/20180101-20180517/collapsed/true
>
>Just one poll (Reuters however had pretty much the same result
>two weeks ago) , but the averages have been trending down for
>Democrats from their 14pt lead back in January to just 4.6%
>now.
>
>https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=irpromo
>
>
>67% say now is a good time to find a quality job. Percentage
>has increased from pre-Trump across all demographics.
>
>http://news.gallup.com/poll/234587/optimism-availability-good-jobs-hits-new-heights.aspx

Not a good time to find a job at the Harley-Davidson plant in Kansas City

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/5/22/17350180/harley-davidson-tax-buyback-kansas-city-factory

Black unemployment at the lowest on record. And the gap between white and black unemployment is the lowest in record.

Folks are getting fat and happy

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/may-jobs-report-hiring-223000-jobs-unemployment-rate-low/

.