i dont think they were ever not gonna vote for moore (def not for jones). they just felt uneasy about declaring their vote immediately following the allegations.

media didnt do jones any favors by nationalizing the race and making it cosmopolitan vs country/rural.

its not necessarily in the bag by any stretch tho. dems outperformed polling in congressional special elections in kansas and montana due to energized turnout. the same applies here. and there are a lot more eligible black voters percentage-wise in this election than there were in ks and mn. plus you have a few repub write-ins that could split the ticket (other repub senator voted for a write-in).

moore is still the favorite but i think its gonna be closer than the current polling gap.