he squeaked by his last state supreme court election in 2012 52%-50% against democrat bob vance who entered the race super late.

the bob vance campaign almost upset moore by targeting moderate republican women in the suburbs. thats a demographic republicans are shedding pretty fast right now (almost -4% drop from 2016 to 2017 in virginia). the sexual predator rep is gonna catalyze that.

moore won this years repub primary convincingly (which is easier for outsiders to do nowadays with the flood of money from pacs in our electoral system) but primary voters dont always reflect general voters 1:1. there were plenty of well-funded tea party candidates who won their primaries but were too extreme/crazy for the general...even in red leaning areas.

evangelicals will prolly put moore over the top because they are hypocritical pieces of shit (and they vote their asses off). but its gonna be close imo.

if dc repubs decide to put a write-in candidate on the ballot like luther strange then the whole game changes and doug jones prolly wins because of the split r vote.