Chuy leakin'...

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-chicago-mayors-race-met-0331-20150330-story.html#page=1

Mayor Rahm Emanuel has opened up a substantial lead on challenger Jesus "Chuy" Garcia with only a week to go in the runoff campaign, a new Chicago Tribune poll has found.

Emanuel has the backing of 58 percent of voters compared with 30 percent for Garcia — double the margin of a similar survey three weeks ago, when the mayor led his opponent by 14 percentage points. Another 9 percent were undecided in the latest poll, which was conducted March 25 through Sunday and has an error margin of 3.7 percentage points.

The mayor has surged this month by making gains among white voters, continuing to improve how voters view him and airing a stream of TV attack ads to drive up negative perceptions of Garcia.

While the poll shows Emanuel with momentum, next week's election is uncharted territory for Chicago. It's the city's first mayoral runoff, and it falls during spring break for Chicago Public Schools, leaving voter turnout in question. Garcia is counting on a strong ground game led by his union supporters to make up for a lack of campaign money compared with Emanuel.

A deeper look at the poll numbers reveals several trends ahead of the April 7 election:

•Racial breakdown: While both candidates have spent a lot of time courting the city's African-American voters, the mayor's gains came largely from white voters shifting to back the mayor and away from Garcia. The poll also found little change in support for Garcia or Emanuel among black and Hispanic voters.

In a Tribune poll conducted March 6-11, Emanuel had 56 percent support among white voters while Garcia had 35 percent.

But the latest survey showed Emanuel's support among white voters climbed to 72 percent while Garcia's backing fell to 25 percent.

Among African-American voters, Emanuel's support was about the same as earlier this month, at 53 percent, while Garcia's backing among black voters was down slightly, to 28 percent from 31 percent.

Latino voters were considered to be a base of support for Garcia, a Mexican American. But Garcia isn't racking up the same wide margins that Emanuel is with white voters. While 52 percent of Hispanic voters surveyed backed Garcia, Emanuel continues to hold significant Latino backing at 36 percent. The margin of error for racial and ethnic subgroups is 6.5 percentage points.

•Emanuel rebound: The mayor's job approval ratings have enjoyed a steady climb since November, when he started airing a non-stop stream of TV ads designed to rehabilitate his political image.

Emanuel's approval rating bottomed out at 35 percent last August. Now, 52 percent approve of Emanuel's performance as mayor, with one third disapproving. That's relatively stable compared to the Tribune poll earlier this month.

Six in 10 white voters approve, while about three in 10 percent disapprove. Among African-American voters, 48 percent approved of Emanuel's handling of the job, down slightly from 51 percent earlier this month. Among Hispanics, 46 percent disapprove of his handling of the job, down from 51 percent.

The mayor has aired a TV attack ad blitz against Garcia since the first round of balloting on Feb. 24, and evidence of the toll that's taken emerged when poll respondents were asked if they had a favorable or unfavorable impression of the challenger.

Among all voters, Garcia's favorability has fallen from 40 percent in early March to 31 percent in the latest survey. At the same time, those with an unfavorable view of the Cook County commissioner climbed from 24 percent to 29 percent in the most recent survey.

Again, there was a notable shift among white voters. In early March, Garcia was viewed favorably by 44 percent of white voters while 29 percent viewed him unfavorably. But in the latest survey, more white voters have an unfavorable impression of Garcia — 39 percent — than a favorable one — 28 percent.

Black voters who had a favorable view of Garcia fell slightly, from 31 percent to 27 percent. Among Hispanic voters, Garcia's favorability fell from 57 percent to 53 percent.

Though Garcia has received much more scrutiny since forcing Emanuel into a runoff, nearly four in 10 voters still don't have an impression of the challenger.

Overall, Emanuel was viewed favorably overall by 52 percent, similar to how voters responded earlier this month. But among white voters, those with a favorable view of Emanuel rose from 54 percent in early March to 63 percent while those with an unfavorable view of the mayor fell from 33 percent to 25 percent.

•Financial issues: For weeks, Emanuel has gone after Garcia for lacking specifics on how he'd address the city's finances, though the mayor has offered few of his own details beyond tasking state government with helping shore up the city's budget shortfalls and unfunded pension liabilities.

In recent days, Garcia has sought to deflect the mayor's criticism by offering a pair of tax increases he'd favor: an expanded state sales tax on services and a graduated state income tax that would charge higher earners more. Both are politically difficult and require state lawmakers' help.

The effect of Emanuel's attack ads, warning of post-election tax increases and unspecified plans from Garcia, showed when respondents in the poll were asked which candidate they viewed as better equipped to manage Chicago's finances.

Overall, 59 percent selected Emanuel while only 18 percent sided with Garcia. That's an increase of 2 percentage points for Emanuel and a decline of 5 for Garcia compared with the poll earlier this month.

Those choosing the mayor as the better financial manager included 71 percent of white voters and 57 percent of African-American voters. Hispanics were divided, with 35 percent selecting Emanuel and 34 percent choosing Garcia. Among undecided voters in the poll, only 2 percent thought Garcia would be a better financial manager for the city while 38 percent chose Emanuel.

•Out of touch? Garcia has sought to portray himself as a man of the city's neighborhoods while casting Emanuel as interested in only wealthy development of the city's downtown business core.

That storyline doesn't seem to be gaining significant traction with voters. Asked which candidate was more "in touch" with people like themselves, 40 percent said Emanuel while 36 percent said Garcia. Another 10 percent said neither mayoral contender and 3 percent said both.

Nearly half of white voters — 48 percent — said Emanuel was more "in touch" with them while 31 percent selected Garcia. Among African-American voters, the results were more divided with 37 percent selecting the mayor and 34 percent Garcia. Fully 56 percent of Latino voters sided with Garcia as more "in touch," while 26 percent selected Emanuel.

•Union support: Garcia and his chief backer, the Service Employees International Union, have responded more recently by airing ads that attack Emanuel's record on crime and decision to close 50 schools.




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