>The essentials:
>
>- Jon and Mance meet, but Stannis shows up to save the day.
>- Jon gets elected to head the Watch. I figure they need to
>show this, including the part where Stannis offers him a
>chance to leave the Watch and become the heir to Winterfell.
>They gotta show Jon choosing duty to Watch over the chance to
>become a Lord.

I think that would be a ton to put into the finale. I think some of this, but not all of it will make it in.

>- Tyrion breaking out and killing Tysha and Tywin.

That's happening.

>- Arya leaving the Hound to die, and then getting on the boat
>to Braavos

Happening.

>- Something with Mereen. Possibly the return of Xaro Xhoan
>Daxos to attack the city.

I honestly have no interest in Meeren at all.

>- Lady Stoneheart. Hopefully killing some Freys in the
>process.
>

I think she shows up, but Brienne and Pod haven't been through nearly enough to kill her yet. They have an entire book of experiences before they get hung, so I don't think this shows up yet. I think Stoneheart just kills some Freys.