"AAPL event kicks off at 1ET on Tuesday in SF -- iPhone 6 baked into expectations so focus on iWatch and mobile payments

This event has garnered a ‘sell the news’ reaction in the last several years as new product introductions were ‘evolutionary’ vs ‘revolutionary’, but we think it’s different this time as not only will AAPL introduce the larger screen iPhone 6, but also expand into a new hardware category for the first time in four years with iWatch, and even more importantly introduce a mobile payments service.

We think a strong iPhone 6 upgrade cycle is largely baked in at this point, so the stock reaction likely hinges on (1) early impressions of the iWatch to debunk the bear case that ‘innovation is dead’ at the company post Steve Jobs, and (2) monetization details around mobile payments to support the bull case that revenue mixes toward recurring Services revenues and the multiple expands."


More than the iWatch or iPhone 6, the mobile payment structure could be the real game changer down the road. This might be the launch that really will make NFC ubiquitous with retailers.




Disclaimer: This is not investment advice; it's your own fault if you try and time the market based on some stranger's advice on the internet